Flawed Author-Cardplayer Articles

David Sklansky · #1 01-20-2005, 04:04 AM

In the newest edition of Cardplayer, out today, Bob Ciaffone, Jim Brier, and Lee Jones all make inexcusable, rather disgraceful errors in their respective articles. Errors either in math, logic, or argumentation. While only one of the errors could cost a lot of money, they are all non tirvial and reflect a lack of understanding of some pretty basic things. Not only would two plus two authors never make these mistakes, neither would the likes of Roy Cooke, Dan Kimberg or Howard Lederer. I'm not talking about esoteric stuff or mere nitpicking.

See if you can find them all.

I am biting my tongue a little bit here because people don't like it when I get too mean. But these errors do bring up a point that I've thought, but not written, until now. Namely refuting the idea that almost any poker book has some value because there are always going to be a few pearls of wisdom to pick up. The presumtion is that those concepts that are already known are ignored and those concepts that are flawed are discarded. Well that's fine if the reader is knowledgeable and can separate the good from the bad. But what if he is not? Even a book where as much as 90% of the stuff is right may be of negative value to non discerning readers. Because most of the 90% is things that he already knows or can find elsewhere. Meanwhile if the reader blindly puts his faith in everything (something he can come closer to doing regarding books about most subjects) that these flawed poker thinkers write, he would be better off having read none of the book at all.

johnnybeef · #2 01-20-2005, 04:27 AM

Am i missing something here? I don't even see an article by Lee Jones this month

Beach-Whale · #3 01-20-2005, 05:17 AM

I guess it's this one.

johnnybeef · #4 01-20-2005, 05:31 AM

ok, i just got the one with the 2004 poker year in review on the cover in the mail yesterday.

KeyToTheMint · #5 01-20-2005, 08:14 AM

Jim brier's math is horrible. Example given "2 outs from 45
unseen cards is about 4%". Thats true if you get to see
the turn only. However, we get to see the turn and river so
its over 8%. This makes multiple of his calculations wrong.

Lee jones logic is way off. "When i have to put a player on
2 specific cards to beat me, thats monsters under the bed
and I'm not playing that game." He is implying the opponent
can't have AA since he's holding an ace and 1 is on the board. The reason this is wrong is for example there are
players out there that only cap the preflop betting with
AA or KK. Specifically against this opponent there is a
25% chance of him having AA. This is hardly insignificant.

As for Bob Ciaffone "5 times big blind or less in chips its
time to go into panic mode look for a good spot to steal"
example given with blinds of 50-100 and a stack of 500 go all
in with any 2 on the puck if no one else is in yet.
This seems wrong to me. I would only do it on blind faith if
my poker mentor david sklansky told me it was right. I am
currently reading tournament poker for advanced players.
Great book, thanks david.

The once and future king · #6 01-20-2005, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As for Bob Ciaffone "5 times big blind or less in chips its
time to go into panic mode look for a good spot to steal"
example given with blinds of 50-100 and a stack of 500 go all
in with any 2 on the puck if no one else is in yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are multitabling SNG's then this is a standard move.

Daliman · #7 01-20-2005, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for Bob Ciaffone "5 times big blind or less in chips its
time to go into panic mode look for a good spot to steal"
example given with blinds of 50-100 and a stack of 500 go all
in with any 2 on the puck if no one else is in yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are multitabling SNG's then this is a standard move.

[/ QUOTE ]

5xBB is WAY too late in SNG's as a standard move. You will always be giving 1.6-1 or so to the BB if you wait this long. 8-9x is the standard starting push here, 5x is simply a fallback.

La Brujita · #8 01-20-2005, 12:08 PM

I can point out something obvious that annoyed me in Brier's column:

[ QUOTE ]
As an aside, a typical betting sequence in which you go all the way to the river will result in your putting in more than 14 percent of the money that ends up in the pot. This is due to the fact that not all of your preflop opponents will stay all the way to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but your pot equity will also increase as players fold because it is pretty rare in a multiway pot for multiple players to have zero outs against you. If you flop top pair with no flush draw any pair will run you down about 10% of the time. If those pairs fold your pot equity increases.

_________________

As for Jones' column I have no idea why he would not reraise on the turn especially given his reads. The pot is big so you want a flush draw or many worse hands to fold (flush draw likely won't) or you make him pay to draw. Also, how do you just "decide he doesn't have a flush draw" if he is an unpredictable bad player. Finally even considering folding AK preflop against the described opponents I think is horrible.

Pocket pair discussion above is excellent as well.

Just my two cents.

The once and future king · #9 01-20-2005, 01:59 PM

I know.

I was assuming that one had just lost a hand etc and one was reduced to x5BB.

If I was to find myself with x5 the BB in the SB I would push with any 2 if it was folded to the button. I think this would be the standard line amongst SNG specialists.

Obviously I wouldnt wait to be 5xBB. I would have started making moves long before this.

MorganLarsen · #10 01-25-2005, 08:44 AM

"As for Jones' column I have no idea why he would not reraise on the turn especially given his reads. The pot is big so you want a flush draw or many worse hands to fold (flush draw likely won't) or you make him pay to draw. Also, how do you just "decide he doesn't have a flush draw" if he is an unpredictable bad player. Finally even considering folding AK preflop against the described opponents I think is horrible."

Are you kidding me? Not folding AKo preflop is the mistake that can cost a lot of money. Furthermore, you won't get rid of the flush draw if it's there. Jones' logic was way off, plus it's clear he doesn't know exactly how the hand played out preflop, so how can his read be sharp. Finaly for him to not try and pick up the huge pot when he was so sure he was ahead or especially tied tops off how wrong he played the hand. He made a big mistake and got lucky.
I am pretty sure the 2+2 authors would agree.