folding a big draw

[scooby]

I'm playing 5/5 at the woods and have about 1000 behind. Unknown limps, solid, non-tricky raises to 25 with about 800 behind, Excellent player cold calls, a LAG calls, I call in CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB folds, limper come along. 5 to flop with about 125 in it of:
7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Limper checks, PFR reaches for chips and then checks, excellent player bets 100 (he has me covered) LAG then thinks for a moment and says, "How much do you like your hand?" and pushes for 500.

I fold. Comments?

[lapoker17]

He's likely on a draw too, so you have to adjust your outs - I would guess that your diamond draw is dead. I think your fold was correct, though I know it's difficult to lay down a hand like that.

[exeph]

It seems like the only way your fold is good is if you're against AKd, wrecking your draw. If you're against overpairs or oversets you're missing a lot of value by staying out of this one. I'm sure you'd rather be pushing so that you'd have their folding equity, but I think you still have to get in there.

[lapoker17]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is not the only hand that wrecks your draw, Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Kx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] does as well, and there's still Excellent Player left to act, who could also be on a draw or a set - Folding is correct.

[exeph]

You're right, picking out AKd was dumb -- we could be hurt by a much smaller hand, and LAG would most likely be raising PF with that holding. Suppose LAG has the Ax of diamonds. So if you push and the expert folds, with the money in the pot already you're neutral EV. If the expert calls with anything less than a set, you're neutral EV on the side pot. The only time you're in real trouble is if the expert has a set, in which case it seems you rate to lose about $450 in EV on the hand.

I agree hero can probably find a better spot for his money, but still there has to be a higher draw and a monster hand out there to make the hand bad for you.

[Matt Flynn]

you have $25 in the pot. your superdraw is only super if a bigger flush draw does not get all in. even if your draw is good you are only ahead a little unless both opponents get all in with pair-type hands. plus you get zero fold equity because LAG went all in. you may be slightly pos EV here, but you could also be crushed. i'd wait for a better spot. fold.

matt

matt

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
you have $25 in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That really doesn't matter though right?

[Matt Flynn]

yes it does. for those of you who just took Econ 101, it does not matter who put that money in: a sunk cost. however, dead money is critical to decisions, and the lesson sticks better when it is thought of as your investment or lack thereof.

matt

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
yes it does. for those of you who just took Econ 101, it does not matter who put that money in: a sunk cost. however, dead money is critical to decisions, and the lesson sticks better when it is thought of as your investment or lack thereof.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree completely. There is 725 in the middle when he is faced with his decision. In a situation like this he should be thinking about the 725. Thinking about the fact that only 25 was "his" in spots like this is unlikely to help him make the most correct decision.

[AZK]

I think what Matt meant was that you would feel more psychologically tied to the pot (even though you shouldn't) if you invested say 250 compared to 25...that's all. I agree though, it should have no bearing on your decision since it's not your money anymore, but for most of us (myself included) it's much more difficult to fold a hand where I've invested 250 in than 25....