Hand to Talk About

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

Here's a hand I played last night (Saturday) in an $80-$160 game at The Bellagio.

I was first one in and raised from an early position with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. A middle position player called and the big blind called.

The flop came A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The big blind checked. I bet. The middle position player folded. And the big blind called.

The turn was the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The big blind bet and I called.

The river was the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The big blind bet and I called.

All comments welcome.

Best wishes,
Mason

[shaundeeb]

Any read on the player?

I think you have to raise the river. Very few hands ahead of you, wouldn't be surprised to see a AQs or A10s.

[Sqred]

He has a jack. From what I have seen lately, thats about the only hand it could be. In today's environment there is a lot of fishy play out there. He took a card off to his second pair, bluffed when the top card paired, and decided to bet the river since he was calling anyway in an atttempt to fold QQ or KK.

In my opinion Mason let him off easy because a river raise probably would be called by this type of player.

If you are always fearing a monster when you have top trips with best kicker you are leaving a lot of money on the table these days.

FJM

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
He has a jack. From what I have seen lately, thats about the only hand it could be.
FJM

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems highly unlikely to me that he has a jack other than AJ. But let's assume for a moment that you're right: He has TJ, QJ, or KJ. If Mason raises, do you seriously think the BB will call?

Mason is the EP raiser this hand. Virtually every legitimate PF raising hand (AJ-AK; AA, KK, QQ, JJ) has QJ-type hands totally buried. The BB knows this and would almost certainly muck to a raise. Given that reality, why would the BB bet a QJ-type hand on the river in this situation? There's no way Mason is laying down a better hand at this point, and he'd know it. If the BB holds JT, he's played the river very poorly.

My bottom line is this: even if you think he has a jack (but you can't be certain, of course), a raise has virtually no value. If he has a J, he'll fold. If you're wrong, you'll have to pay him off if he 3-bets, costing you two bets. Hence, a raise is a -EV play...if you read him for a J.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Sqred:

I don't know at what level you play at, but at this level the players tend to be a little better. So if he had a jack I'm not so sure he would call. However, I do agree that if you can be very sure that a jack is where he's at, then a river raise is correct.

best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi shaundeeb:

I probably should have stated this. The player was someone I didn't know but he seemed to be a little too loose and on the aggressive side. That makes him typical for this game.

best wishes,
Mason

[cold_cash]

I want to raise the river, but I feel like by saying that I'm stepping into a trap.

[shaundeeb]

That was my intial reaction but a set may c/r the flop or turn unless they are 100% sure Mason has AK and they think he will raise so they can 3bet. Once the pot got headsup villian had better options to take I think if he just filled up his set. A c/r also charges the most for mason to draw to a higher boat. Could be 3 to 4 outs if villian has JJ or AJ or could be as many as 10 outs.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi shaundeeb:

Since a second ace hit the board, it's now less likely that I'm holding an ace and more likely I have a big pair. If my opponent has three aces and checks the turn, I might take a free card. Now I have a free chance to beat him.

Best wishes,
Mason

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to raise the river, but I feel like by saying that I'm stepping into a trap.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my first instinct too. Guess we'll see how this pans out.