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#1
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Villain here is a 53/11 with an AF of 1.0.
Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls. Turn: (4.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls. River: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero... |
#2
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all i hear about 15/30 players is that they go crazy with one pair. but, the AF of 1.0 makes me wonder why the villain went crazy on the turn. i would prefer calling. did villain showdown T2 or 22?
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#3
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Raise and call a 3-bet? I don't see him playing AJ or JT on the flop that way. Even with the planned turn c/r. If he flopped 2 pair he should bet into you, let you raise, then c/r the turn.
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#4
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Had the exact same hand today, and my villian had AJ.
I still raise though. |
#5
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Raise and I can't believe this is even close.
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#6
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Really? I think it's knida close...I might suck though.
What percentage of the time that he calls the river raise do I have the best hand? What percentage of the time will he 3-bet and I'll call with a loser? |
#7
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[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time that he calls the river raise do I have the best hand? [/ QUOTE ] 90%. He will 3-bet with a full house except for the 5% of the time he's a total moron. The other 5% is a chop because he also had KQ. [ QUOTE ] What percentage of the time will he 3-bet and I'll call with a loser? [/ QUOTE ] 75% of the time. He could be getting excited by trip jacks, he could have AK or AQ and think your two pair was counterfeited, and it could be a chop. But that's only 25% of the time. Of course, this is all assuming the guy is a retard. If he's good, a 3-bet means you're toast. But I couldn't bring myself to raise and fold to a 3-bet. |
#8
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I think you misunderstood my questions, or I worded them poorly.
The two numbers I want can't equal 100%. Lemme thhink about this again. |
#9
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Let's look at it a bit differently. Assuming you lose 75% of the time as suggested, and you have to call 1 bet, with 12.5 BB in the pot then:
EV = (.75 * -1) + (.25 * 12.5) EV = +2.375 You would have to raise 6+ BB before your EV was minimal, so 3 bet'm back or call. At least if he comes over the top of a 3 bet it may put him on slow playing JJ or just plain stupid - a lot of those out there. Or maybe I suck [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] |
#10
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It probably is close, and I probably suck. If your read on him is good, then maybe a call is in order. How many hands do you have on him?
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