Capping With Jacks

Lost Wages · #1 12-31-2004, 04:35 PM

Only played a few hands against preflop limp-reraiser but so far he has been tight passive. Others are loose passive. Not really sure I have a question here, just wondering if anyone plays it different.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, CO calls, Button 3-bets, SB calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero folds, CO folds.

River: (14 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Button bets, SB folds.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Lost Wages

BottlesOf · #2 12-31-2004, 04:38 PM

Nope, seems fine.

k_squared · #3 12-31-2004, 04:42 PM

I would fold after the flop. A capped pot with two over cards and two opponents... You are drawing at best to 2 cards, at best and that is a 1 to 22 shot (and you might be drawing dead or to one out if someone else has the diamond draw that kills the J of diamonds). The flop came bad! It is time to let it go, especially against a player you peg as TA. One over card and I might play (and do so aggressively) but two and you are dead to most hands which tight players will 3 bet (AA, KK, QQ, AK) and hands they might three bet (KQs, AQs, KJs, QJs etc.) There are very few hands that are worth three betting that you can beat after that flop, especially with a diamond draw you can't back into!!! FOLD, and FOLD FAST.

Also, if I had the J of diamonds I would definately play!!!

-K_squared

Haupt_234 · #4 12-31-2004, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold on after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 2 outter is a 23:1 shot. Hero is getting 22:1 to call; add in the implied odds if he hits and it's an easy call.

Haupt_234

Piiop · #5 12-31-2004, 04:54 PM

Also has BD str8 potential.

k_squared · #6 12-31-2004, 04:57 PM

IT ISN'T REALLY 2 OUTS!!! You can't count this as 2 outs because they will not definately give the the best hand if they are hit. Against a tight passive player (as he describes him) there is even a SIGNIFICANT chance you are drawing dead to a higher set. So if you count that as 2 outs you are crazy, especially with a diamond draw that one of the other players might have (especially those other loose passive players who called 4 bets pre-flop! suited hands seem like a good possibility) not likely but possible and again weakening your '2 outs' even more.)

And a 2-outer on the turn lays ODDS of 1 to 22.5 and on the river it lays ODD of 1 to 22 the number changes because in one case you see an additional card. IT DOESN'T LAY ODDS of 1 to 23.5 but it is true that the chance of you hitting your card is 1/23.5... which is not the same thing, although you do derive one from the other. Correct me if I am wrong, but I just double checked the math on some scratch paper...

-k_squared

Haupt_234 · #7 12-31-2004, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
IT ISN'T REALLY 2 OUTS!!! You can't count this as 2 outs because they will not definately give the the best hand if they are hit. Against a tight passive player (as he describes him) there is even a SIGNIFICANT chance you are drawing dead to a higher set. So if you count that as 2 outs you are crazy, especially with a diamond draw that one of the other players might have (especially that loose player! not likely but possible and again weakening your '2 outs' even more.)

[/ QUOTE ]

So, discount the odds of hitting the set and making someone a better hand. Now, add in the odds of hitting a BD straight. I think it evens out to around 2 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
And a 2-outer on the turn lays ODDS of 1 to 22.5 and on the river it lays ODD of 1 to 22 the number changes because in one case you see an additional card. IT DOESN'T LAY ODDS of 1 to 23.5 but it is true that the chance of you hitting your card is 1/23.5... which is not the same thing, although you do derive one from the other. Correct me if I am wrong, but I just double checked the math on some scratch paper...

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you're arguing here.

Haupt_234

BottlesOf · #8 12-31-2004, 05:05 PM

You're right about the reverse implied odds. You could be against a higher set, and you might hit your set and lose to a flush. There's def. some reverse implied odds. However, he's got a redraw against a flush, and some weird backdoor straight potential.

As for your second paragraph, I can't decipher it.

However, I think the pot is big enough that it's still a call.

Harv72b · #9 12-31-2004, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And a 2-outer on the turn lays ODDS of 1 to 22.5 and on the river it lays ODD of 1 to 22 the number changes because in one case you see an additional card. IT DOESN'T LAY ODDS of 1 to 23.5 but it is true that the chance of you hitting your card is 1/23.5... which is not the same thing, although you do derive one from the other. Correct me if I am wrong, but I just double checked the math on some scratch paper...

-k_squared

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I understand what you're saying, and the reason I'm only calling it 23.5:1 (I didn't, but I agree) is because you fold the turn unimproved. That's just for the set.

Personally, I'm calling again on the turn if I see a J or a non-diamond T, giving me 5 outs to stay in the hand. So I'm looking at 9.4:1 to call the flop. If the turn doesn't help, I fold to a bet. If I catch my turn card, my outs go up considerably...6 solid outs to the OESD, or 10 outs to the FH (although that has to be discounted for the possibility of a higher set); either way, the pot will be big enough to justify a turn call there.

You don't raise the flop because Hero certainly needs to improve to win this hand, and you want the overcalls to keep the pot big enough to continue. Besides the high likelihood that he'll be 3-bet again if he raises.

Nobody is arguing that the odds of Hero winning this hand aren't extremely remote. We're just saying that with the implied odds figured in (he can count on at least the PFLR calling down, possibly raising), he only has to back into a win about 4% of the time to make the flop call profitable.

Harv72b · #10 12-31-2004, 04:49 PM

I'm not so sure it's a good idea to cap with JJ against a tight passive player. If he's 3-betting, he's probably got higher pockets than you.

With the size of the pot I don't think you fold for 1 SB on the flop. Yes, you're drawing thin, but the implied odds are significant to say the least if you hit another J (or catch your backdoor straight). The check/fold on the turn is also good.