Key holdem odds to memorize

[Derek in NYC]

I initially posted this in small stakes, where I participate, but then I remembered this forum.

I thought this might be a helpful thread for many players, myself included. I actually have a set of about 40 flashcards that I sometimes review on the bus when Im bored. Anyhow, I thought I'd tap the 2+2 talent pool to increase my flashcards. So here goes my first helpful odd to get the list going:

Odds of flopping a flush draw or made flush with 2 suited cards: 8:1 against

(By the way, does anybody know the odds of flopping two pair or trips holding two unpaired cards?)

[knsmith85]

[ QUOTE ]
I initially posted this in small stakes, where I participate, but then I remembered this forum.

I thought this might be a helpful thread for many players, myself included. I actually have a set of about 40 flashcards that I sometimes review on the bus when Im bored. Anyhow, I thought I'd tap the 2+2 talent pool to increase my flashcards. So here goes my first helpful odd to get the list going:

Odds of flopping a flush draw or made flush with 2 suited cards: 8:1 against

(By the way, does anybody know the odds of flopping two pair or trips holding two unpaired cards?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand the usefulness of a lot of these ratios. Sure, knowing how often you'll flop your set, or hit your flush on the turn/river is useful, but past that this kind of knowledge seems pretty limited to me.

For example, when holding un-paired cards, what good does it do you to know how often you flop trips? First off, it is so small that you'll never be able to consider this probability in terms of pot odds, and secondly when you do flop trips you still don't know if it's any good (example: you hold 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], flop comes 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

This kind of thing is absolutely necessary in blackjack, but it seems to me that there is limited use in hold 'em. (You'd be much better off teaching yourself speed-arithmetic tricks than you are memorizing flashcards, IMO)

Thanks,
Kyle

[Derek in NYC]

to use your example, you are dead wrong if you dont understand why such odds are important to memorize. suppose you hold a trash hand like 8 T offsuit, from the small blind, in a 1/2 structure. 7 players limp ahead of you. should you complete? assuming the bb does not raise, the pot is paying you 17:1 to complete. the only way to know whether this is likely to be worth playing is to know the odds i just mentioned.

[knsmith85]

[ QUOTE ]
to use your example, you are dead wrong if you dont understand why such odds are important to memorize. suppose you hold a trash hand like 8 T offsuit, from the small blind, in a 1/2 structure. 7 players limp ahead of you. should you complete? assuming the bb does not raise, the pot is paying you 17:1 to complete. the only way to know whether this is likely to be worth playing is to know the odds i just mentioned.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, as was mentioned, the odds are so insignificant here for a direct hit on the flop (straight, two pair, or trips) [using the numbers from earlier, the odds of ANY of these are (1 - (1 - .013) * (1 - .0202) * (1 - .0199)) or 5.22%, you're NEVER going to have the direct pot odds to make the call here. I think you're going to lose more on second-best hands than you will make from callers to the river, so that effectively cancels out the implied odds.

[Derek in NYC]

I was hoping not to have to sit down and do the math, but I dont think you're right. Given unsuited cards, there is some combination where it makes sense to complete from the SB, and perhaps limp from the button behind enough limpers. i want to know where this point is. you're right though, i should consider not only the odds of flopping two pair or trips, but also the odds of flopping a str8 or OESD given an x-gapper. my intuition tells me that some situations arise in limit poker where completing from the sb/button is the correct move, but i can't tell you what the cutoff point is. im happy to be proven wrong, and if so, im happy to concede that this may not be the greatest flashcard in the world, but otherwise, i think the utility of memorizing certain basic odds is quite important to good potodds based play.

[knsmith85]

[ QUOTE ]
...my intuition tells me that some situations arise in limit poker where completing from the sb/button is the correct move, but i can't tell you what the cutoff point is...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say the best test for this intuition, would be to look into a 100,000+ hand PT database, and see how profitable hands like AA or AKs etc. are from the Small Blind. You'll find that they're actually not extremely profitable. (I'm not sure, but I think you'd find that things like 99 or TT from late are more profitable than even the most premium of hands on the SB)

Another key here is that you're not respecting position. When you combine awful position with junky hands that might catch a flop (which could very well be second-best) once in a while, the EV just doesn't work out.

[Derek in NYC]

by the way, why would you multiply these probabilities? shouldnt they be added?

[knsmith85]

[ QUOTE ]
by the way, why would you multiply these probabilities? shouldnt they be added?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can add them, but then you need to subtract out all the crossover results. The way I did it is much easier.

What I do, is take the probability that the first one does NOT happen AND the 2nd one does NOT happen AND the 3rd one does NOT happen. To get that you multiply together - giving you the odds that you DON'T flop anything good. Subtract that from one to get the odds that you DO flop anything good.

Note that my straight draw calculation is slightly incorrect - I did it for a 3-gapper instead of a 1-gap.

My point about it pretty much never being +EV to complete with junk (3-gap+ off-suit w/o Ace or King), is that you'll end up pouring so much money into second-best pots that you lose pretty much all the benefits of the implied odds. e.g.: When you get a flop like 553x and are holding J5x, your implied odds aren't that great if you're best, and if you do get callers, you're probably beat.

[Derek in NYC]

and im sorry to be so dogged, but assuming your number of 5% is correct, in fact there are situations where a call would be correct. either completing from the small blind, or playing from the button in a family pot, would be perfectly fine with a 5% chance of this outcome, particularly given the implied odds you get after the flop if you hit your 19:1 shot.

[knsmith85]

[ QUOTE ]
to use your example, you are dead wrong if you dont understand why such odds are important to memorize. suppose you hold a trash hand like 8 T offsuit, from the small blind, in a 1/2 structure. 7 players limp ahead of you. should you complete? assuming the bb does not raise, the pot is paying you 17:1 to complete. the only way to know whether this is likely to be worth playing is to know the odds i just mentioned.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're much better off understanding the underlying calculations for these types of situations than you are memorizing, so you can do the math on the fly.