ODD Thought- Satellite Bubble Situation

[Cleveland Guy]

I know in the past there has been a lot of talking about folding Premium hands on the bubble in a satelite situation.

I had an odd thought about the other way- playing crap hands with a big stack.

Here is the hypothetical situation:

Satelitte Tournament with lets say 10 Left, and top 8 win the Ticket to the Big Tournament.

I'll Put the blinds at 1000/2000.

You are the Far and away big stack with 60,000 in chips, and are sitting on the bubble.

The BB has only 1500 left, so he is all in no matter what.

MP who has about 5,500 left, raises all in.

CO who has about 3,500 left calls all in.

You look down and see 74s. You are on the SB so you are last to act.

Is this worth a call? yes or no?

[lucas9000]

i say yes because you don't have to worry about putting more chips in the pot, you're getting not-terrible odds for the call, and the chance to bust at least 2 players in one hand - and thus end the satellite (for all intents and purposes) - is worth it. if you win this pot for some reason, you're done. if you lose it and only one person gets knocked out (so you still need one more to drop before you're down to 8), go watch tv while everyone else knocks out the one additional player [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[zaxx19]

suited yuppers unsuited noppers....

[Cleveland Guy]

I myself would call.

I know I am way behind, but I can help end the tournament without any real damage to myself.

Situation 1 - Player who raised all in wins. Tournament over, my chips don't matter

Situation 2- BB Wins. In this case, I can still finish 2nd and end the tournament. Unless the order of finish for the hand is the exact opposite of chip counts, we are down one person. Meaning as long as I don't finish last in the hand one person is knocked out

Situation 3 - The Guy who calls the all in wins. in this case the BB is already gone, and all i have to do is beat the raiser to end the tournament

Situation 4- I win. Probably the least likely to win the hand outright, but this will end the tournament.

Even if I lose, and the order of finish for the hand goes

BB, Caller, Raiser, Me. we are still on the bubble and I still have 55,000 chips so I am still in great shape for the ticket.

[lady4luck]

JUST BECAUSE YOUR CHIP LEADER, WHY WOULD YOU CALL WITH THAT? YOU SHOULD FOLD AND LET THEM BUST EACH OTHER OUT. PUTTING YOU IN A THE MONEY AND ALOT OF CHIPS 2 BULLY THE PLAYERS WHO ARE LEFT.

[Roman]

this is a satellite.

[adanthar]

This is a math problem.

Your chance of getting into the main tournament with 60,000 chips is X%. Let's call it 99%. If you call and lose, your chance is a little lower (let's say 98.5%.)

So the question is whether the chance of finishing second or better in the hand, ending the tournament, is worth the .5% drop in EV when you consider that you could be playing something else with a high hourly rate if you end the tournament now. To put it another way, since you're losing money by prolonging this tournament, you need to find out if a -chipEV play like this one is nevertheless +$EV with the high opportunity cost.

The answer here is almost unequivocally 'yes' but the result would be different if you were only a break even player or had less chips.

[Cleveland Guy]

bump

[dmk]

I call w/out even blinking. How could you honestly not call this?!!

[Cleveland Guy]

That's what I'm wondering.

The numbers are closer than i expected,

anyone on the "no" side care to give reasons?