Difficult turn against live one

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

Last night I'm in this loose 12-24 game. UTG raises and I 3-bet in MP w/ AK of clubs. Two cold callers and its capped by UTG. UTG is a true thoroughbred degenerate (who's running well tonight). It is impossible for me to put him on a hand. He can show down anything. SB is an old asain lady--totally straightforward passive, but not so skilled. She will cold call raises w/ JQo. She never takes the initiative unless she's got something though. Tight for this table, but way looser than me. They all think I'm the rock of all rocks. Other players are not important in this hand.

Roughly 24 SB preflop

Flop 8c7cTh
Check, Bet, I raise, Fold, fold, Call(SB), Fold, Call (UTG)

Turn (15 BB)
8d (8c7cTh)
Not for sure if this is exact board, but a one gapper straight is possible and it is well coordinated so that connectors could have made a full house.

Check, UTG Bets, I call only, SB Raises, BB 3-bets
What's my move here? Do I call 2 more, and risk calling a fourth to possibly draw dead?

All comments welcome,

PT

[JasonP530]

It looks like youre getting the odds, but I think there is a good possibility you are drawing dead, given her passivity. Your overcards are certainly not good, so you basically have like A5s, which I think you would muck here.

[payupsucka]

i wouldnt ever consider calling 3 bets cold without a pair or a draw. Y ou are drawing dead.

[lil feller]

That ranks among one of the worst posts I have ever encountered. This forum is supposed to be about discussion, not random statements. I'm not saying that you might not be correct, but try giving some insigh as to how you got to your decision. This would be especially interesting, as your opinion disagrees with everybody else that has posted on this hand.

[DeezNutz3]

lil feller good analysis and I agree, but I believe he said UTG showed JTc so the J high flush.

[lil feller]

me and my poor eyesight again, I thought it said TJo and not TJc, I really need a new monitor [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[lil feller]

This is a toughy. The real problem here, obviously, is the SB. Am I correct in assuming that if she folds on the flop or turn you are committed to a showdown, even if you don't improve?

Given you description of her I really doubt that she has filled up here. That would imply a slowplay on the flop, and she doesn't sound like she is that clever. My read on her would, with the limited information, would be that she called pre-flop with something like 89s or A8s and now thinks her hand is good. You must assume then, that your A and K are no good, and that the T of clubs is no good.

This leaves you with 8 outs that are probably clean (maybe 7), with a small chance that you are drawing dead (I'm thinking UTG has something like JJ and is trying to get rid of you, here's hoping he didn't have TT).

Looks to me like you're getting 22:2 or 11.5:1 on a draw that only requires 6:1 (and thats assuming 7 outs, not 8) I think that overlay more than compensates for the times that you are drawing dead.

Had I been playing this hand I would have Raised UTG's turn bet, in an effort to clean up my A/K outs, obviously this wouldn't have worked as the SB has some kind of big hand.

lil feller

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

[ QUOTE ]
The real problem here, obviously, is the SB. Am I correct in assuming that if she folds on the flop or turn you are committed to a showdown, even if you don't improve?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes She is and yes I am.

[ QUOTE ]
Given you description of her I really doubt that she has filled up here. That would imply a slowplay on the flop, and she doesn't sound like she is that clever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think she would coldcall 2 bets w/ 2 pr on the flop. I also dont think she would need to be to clever (she's not) to chooseto slowplay a straight til the turn. My nephew Sam would know that UTG is gonna pay if he thinks he has an out. That said, I think you are right that she had an 8 and simply check-raised w/ trips. Hard to tell w/o seeing them though. I think she would have whined and shown a loser straight.


[ QUOTE ]
This leaves you with 8 outs that are probably clean (maybe 7), with a small chance that you are drawing dead (I'm thinking UTG has something like JJ and is trying to get rid of you, here's hoping he didn't have TT.

Had I been playing this hand I would have Raised UTG's turn bet, in an effort to clean up my A/K outs, obviously this wouldn't have worked as the SB has some kind of big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I Think that I didn't raise bc. I never thought my A/K outs were good. Problably wrong thinking-pot was way too big to save a bet.

Sadly I mucked. The river was the 6c and UTG turns over TJc. Outplayed again.

[onegymrat]

This exact situation happened to me this past weekend with 10-7h in the BB. Flop was capped and I checked the turn when the top card paired. When it got back to me, it was two BBs. I folded. The river came the h which I would have won.

Even though we may be drawing dead at times to boats and higher flushes, there is enough of an overlay for us to play on. I will not make the same mistake again...and neither will you.

[lil feller]

So....

You muck and he showed JT, and that took that pot? (That was only 2 pair right?) I can't imagine a player like the one you described c/r the turn with anything that can't beat that. Did she have to show?

lf