TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND

Vince Lepore · #1 11-22-2004, 04:42 PM

15-30 in the cutoff with Ak spades with 6 other opponents. I raised all six called. Flop was QJ2 one spade. It was checked to me one off button and i bet hoping to get a free card on turn and the fact that my hand could be the best hand. The reason i am posting this is after telling this hand to a friend of mine who plays for a living said it was an ill advised bet. I told him his play was weak(and scard poker) to not bet cause his reasoning is he couldnt have the best hand most of the time and didnt want to be charged more than necessary to draw. He then said there was chance to get free card but it was on flop when only one left to act behind. And trying for free card on turn wouldnt work often enough to bet into 6 others on a QJ2 flop which is a flop that will usually hit alot of opponents. And could get checkraised or worse very easily and get caught in a whipsaw on flop when i could have easily checked the flop. Which is correct play?

Matt Flynn · #2 11-22-2004, 04:51 PM

vince haven't really played limit for 2 years but seems to me there are too many bets in the pot not to bet your overcards and gutshot and backdoor draw there. that's more important than getting a free card, although that can be a nice side benefit. you at least want all the medium/little connector hands and king-little and ace-little out.

matt

felson · #3 11-22-2004, 07:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you at least want all the medium/little connector hands and king-little and ace-little out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you actually want those hands out. You just want to charge them for drawing to runner-runner or at best 3 outs.

EDIT: maybe you do want the three-outers to fold, although I doubt that pairing a little card will win a showdown given this board.

Matt Flynn · #4 11-22-2004, 10:54 PM

felson,

one flip here is average # of callers and average true outs. maybe 7-8 on average counting the runner-runner as 1-1.5? if he gets 2 callers he gives up next to nothing by betting, even if check-raised. so unless he gets check-raised and no one else calls, he on average gives up little by betting and therefore should bet right? sure he might be dominated for all but 5-5.5 outs, but what if he's not? the chances of him having the best hand are small, but is that 4% small? even 4% makes the bet clear because of the pot size and his outs. and blowing little hands out gives him a percent or two each. just seems you add all those up with a 12-bet pot and you really should bet. more i think about it the more it seems nearly a small-bet sized error to check (much bigger than i thought at first). but it's been a long time since i thought limit.

matt

Manzanita · #5 11-22-2004, 04:51 PM

Vince,

Since you are going to the river with your hand I can see your friend's point of view of trying to get there for the minimum price. However given the size of the pot and the strength of your hand I like betting this flop (especially since you believe there is a chance that you may be able to take a free card on the turn).

-- Manzanita

slicvic · #6 11-22-2004, 05:28 PM

I don't like the bet here, particularly if there was a two flush. With 6 callers for 2-bets PF and QJ flop you will almost never have the best hand and will likely not even have your fair share of pot equity (your overcards make too many likely straights). Wouldn't it make you sick to have it be 3-4 bets back to you? Also, I can't see why it would help to get Kx and Ax out now since they may bet into you on the turn (if an A or K turns) and you can pop it if nobody else has yet. I also might pop it if a spade comes on the turn (and obviously if a 10 falls).

Senor Choppy · #7 11-22-2004, 06:16 PM

I think the best way to explain it to your friend would be to post another AK hand with an entirely different set of circumstances on 2+2 where betting is a much better option and hope that no one recognizes it as such.

MMMMMM · #8 11-22-2004, 06:41 PM

I like betting here: you might clean up some outs, get a free card, make more money if you hit. If you get check-raised well heck, you are going to the river anyway barring extreme circumstances, and there are already so many bets in the pot that I don't think being scared of a wittle bitty check-raise should be a major concern.

Gamblor · #9 11-24-2004, 04:46 PM

I like betting here: you might clean up some outs,

He has a draw to top pair top kicker.

He can't possibly clean up any outs here; the pot is 12 SB, meaning if the board is QJ2, he can't clean up his A by betting because AQ, AJ, A2, and KT won't fold, and any worse Ace will be outkicked.

He can't clean up his K outs because AT won't fold with a gutshot getting 12-1, nor will KQ, KJ, or K2 if by some chance it's out there.

His T outs are to the stone nuts so we don't want to clean that up either.

What are we trying to clean up here?

schroedy · #10 11-24-2004, 04:54 PM

I think that in imagination (or as it turns out, in reality) the expectation was that underpairs would fold, and I also think the poster to whom you are responding has hopes that A2 or K2 (out of the blind?) would drop.

I know that I am betting it. I am not sure that I can articulate exactly why.

In general my instincts in these close situations is to bet the flop -- for information, for a free card, reflexively . . . but I am currently wondering if this is a leak.