flopped straight, but then the plot thickens

stlip · #1 11-17-2004, 09:06 AM

Party .50/1, 8 handed

HERO is SB
UTG is on tilt, Button is LAG, BB is solid

Dealt to HERO 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG bets, 4 folds, Button calls, HERO completes, BB checks

** Dealing Flop ** 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

HERO bets, BB folds, UTG raises, Button calls, HERO 3 bets, UTG caps, Button calls

** Dealing Turn ** 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

HERO checks, UTG checks, Button checks

** Dealing River ** 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

HERO checks, UTG checks, Button bets, HERO calls, UTG calls.

kenberman · #2 11-17-2004, 09:14 AM

bet the turn. if raised, you are probably behind.

pointcount · #3 11-17-2004, 09:19 AM

I think your line is OK but I'd probably lead the turn and see what happens. I'd be folding to a raise on the turn/or bet on the river.. you've got the low end of a straight which is already potentially dangerous, and then it's counterfeited. By the river any diamond or ten has you beat. I'd put the button on holding a T and. UTG I'd put on a set or overpair, but then if he's on tilt he could be going at it with anything. Even though I think it's pretty safe to say you're beat when the 4th diamond hits, I'd call one bet (considering you dont have much respect for either player), definately not two.

stlip · #4 11-17-2004, 09:31 AM

I didn't bet the turn because I was going to try to call all the way down and just wanted to get there as cheaply as possible. I figured I would take my chances that another diamond would not hit (doubt someone with a flush draw would have folded for one bet anyway).

Obviously after the hand was checked around and the diamond hit I had some pangs of regret for not making someone at least pay to beat me with a flush.

kenberman · #5 11-17-2004, 10:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't bet the turn because I was going to try to call all the way

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a straight! You couldn't possibly have a read on anyone (at this point) that you are behind. Bet when you are ahead. You are leaving bets on the table with this line of thinking.

[ QUOTE ]
I figured I would take my chances that another diamond would not hit (doubt someone with a flush draw would have folded for one bet anyway).

[/ QUOTE ]

You want people with a flush draw paying to see the river. Giving them a free card is a terrible thing to do.

cbfair · #6 11-17-2004, 09:46 AM

This is a pretty loose call even for 1/2 a small bet with only one limper and the BB; The pot's to small to justify it. I'd fold this hand with less than four other limpers in the pot.

Having hit gold on this flop, the 3-bet is perfect. I would bet out on the turn and call one raise back to you. If it's 3-bet back to you, you gotta figure your behind to at least one of the villians with higher straight or made flush. Lay this down for two more bets on the turn. If you're still in at the river, check/fold.

stlip · #7 11-17-2004, 10:12 AM

Obviously I played it because the two worst players at the table were the limpers.

But it is a little surprising how good a chance the small connectors have in any pot just because on the occasions the flop hits them it tends to miss everyone else.

I did a simulation against AKo, TT and a range of hands Sklansky group 5 or better. My little connectors had slightly better than a 1:6 chance against those monsters. I've got 7:1 to enter the pot, so voila!

The interesting thing about little connectors is that they always have about the same chance to win. Against the three big pre-flop hands I tested the winning percentage was 17.4 percent. Against 3 other totally random hands it's 19.6 percent.

Quercus · #8 11-18-2004, 03:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I did a simulation against AKo, TT and a range of hands Sklansky group 5 or better. My little connectors had slightly better than a 1:6 chance against those monsters. I've got 7:1 to enter the pot, so voila!

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about this a bit further. This only works if everyone decides to check through to the river. But, that's not what's going to happen. If you flop a straight, you are good to go. If you flop an OESD, at least you have a leg to stand on - though you are still in trouble. if you miss or hit a gutshot, you can't continue against any aggression at all, nullifying a significant portion of your winning hands before you even get to see them.

Since you can't win hands that you fold, the seemingly favorable pot odds that you had preflop get wiped out postflop.

Piiop · #9 11-17-2004, 09:54 AM

Fold preflop, bet the turn. There are many draws/hands your opponents could have other than diamonds, do not give a free card.

stlip · #10 11-17-2004, 10:43 AM

To me it wasn't a question of trying to maximize bets at that point. Because there were still a number of hands they could be on that I could beat I needed to try to be in at the end to see that. If raised on the turn (by a guy on tilt or somebody who just liked his nut flush draw) I wasn't sure I could justify that.

As for the preflop bet, not only do I think the pot odds are fine, but the nature of these hands is such that either you flop two pair or a set or a straight or a good draw or your gone.