Hypothetical situation

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!! · #1 10-25-2004, 07:54 PM

Lets say you're in the WSOP. It is the first day, first hour, 10th hand. You are dealt KK. Your opponent pushes his stack in (which is covering your 10k stack) and shows you AKs. Do you call or fold and why?

bugstud · #2 10-25-2004, 07:56 PM

call, because I like doubling up 65% of the time

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!! · #3 10-25-2004, 08:02 PM

You are willing to take that risk for 10k chips in the first hour of play in a 5 day tourney? Am i just insane?

Maybe its just cause my BR is 1/4 of the buyin for that tourney.....

fnurt · #4 10-26-2004, 04:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are willing to take that risk for 10k chips in the first hour of play in a 5 day tourney? Am i just insane?

Maybe its just cause my BR is 1/4 of the buyin for that tourney.....

[/ QUOTE ]

See, that's the thing. If the money you spend to enter a tournament means so much to you that it's going to lead you to make sub-optimal decisions, you shouldn't be playing. You're going to make bad laydowns. You're going to play scared on the bubble because you "want to make your money back." The better approach is to forget about the entry fee as soon as you pay it. That money is gone. From here your goal is simply to maximize your win.

This call is an absolute no-brainer. A 65/35 edge is way too much for even the best player in the WSOP to pass up. If we were talking about your home game involving your crazy cousins who say "puppy-feet" instead of clubs, the answer might be different. The WSOP field is a bit tougher than that.

Variations on this question come up A LOT and the discussion is always instructive... instructive, that is, regarding the number of bad assumptions people make about poker. In one such thread I asked "if you pass on this hand, and just play solid poker with small pots, what is your chance to double up before you go bust?" Some people thought a top tournament pro would have a NINETY PERCENT chance to double up before they bust, using a conservative strategy. The only response I can offer to this crazy assumption is that no top tournament pro would agree.

Sklansky does talk about passing up a small edge if you are one of the best players in the field. None of us would be among the best players in the WSOP. More importantly, 65/35 is NOT A SMALL EDGE.

I do not want to hear one person respond by saying "but if you lose you're out." Resist the temptation!

HoldingFolding · #5 10-26-2004, 10:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If we were talking about your home game involving your crazy cousins who say "puppy-feet" instead of clubs,

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you not do that please. I'm in the office & it's not good if I suddenly start pissing myself laughing.

JoeyT · #6 10-25-2004, 08:15 PM

I would call every time here. You're a 2-1 (or very close to it) favorite and that's just too big to pass up, even this early. (Note that I might not call if I didn't know what my opponent had)

Tommy R · #7 10-26-2004, 12:00 AM

This is a good post!

One thing it depends on is whether you are the best player in the game (or one of the better players). If you are not you would take the 65% chance to double up every time.

However, assuming you are one of the better players you should avoid close gambles early on (this is David S's advice in his book on tournament poker). However, David does not elaborate on what percentage chance to win a close gamble is. I would be inclined to call in this situation. I think 65% is too much to give up.

azalin · #8 10-26-2004, 12:53 AM

If he didnt show me his hand, Fold. But knowing what he had I would call. I have heard a lot of people state that 60/40 edge is what they are happy with. I agree.

Go Blue · #9 10-26-2004, 02:03 AM

Some people say that they'd fold in a situation like that because they don't wanna pay $10k to be gone after half an hour. The real question is, if you had aces and someone went all in like that, with or without showing you the hand, would you call?

remen · #10 10-26-2004, 02:58 AM

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The real question is, if you had aces and someone went all in like that, with or without showing you the hand, would you call?

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What makes this the real question? I seriously doubt anyone stupid enough to fold aces heads up preflop in this situation would be willing to enter a poker tournament for 10k. Knowing their hand does not matter, aces are the best possible starting hand. No winning player passes up an edge that is at least 75/25.