Drawing Hands and Pot Odds

[redraw]

I have some confusion over playing draws as it relates to pot odds. Specically in limit HE I find it seldom correct to fold an open end straight draw on the flop, but frequently correct to fold it on the turn...yet my flop call justifcation assumed playing until the RIVER... Does this seem contradictory to people?

For example: $5/10 HE, and our hero is in the BB with 9To. One MP limper, SB calls, and hero knocks the table.

Flop comes K 7 8 rainbow

Hero assumes he has 8 outs to win the hand (count 0 partial outs for a 9 or T). SB bets $5. Pot is now $20, thus offering the hero 4 to 1. Because he is 2.18 against to make his 8-outter by the river, he calls. MP calls as well bringing the pot to $30.

Turn brings a 3. no possible flush draw. Board is K 7 8 3

SB bets $10, so hero is now getting 4 to 1 pot odds, but he is 10.50 to 1 against at this point, so he must...FOLD?

My hang-up is that hero justified the flop call by using 2.18 to 1 (31%) as his hit rate- this is the likelihood of completing the flush with TWO CARDS to come. But when SB makes the prohibitively large $10 turn bet, the hero must fold- so hero did NOT really have two cards to come...only one (the turn, on which he missed)

Am I thinking about this the right way? Thanks for any responses...

[Saint_D]

Provided HE == Hold 'em...

http://www.pokersavvy.com/oddscard.php says 8 outs with 2 cards to come is 2.2:1 and with 1 card it's 4.8:1. Even so, the pot is still not giving you odds to call the turn bet.

If you could predict that the SB would bet $10 into you could take your (bad) implied odds into account on the flop.

However, assuming you don't know what the SB will do, your flop call is correct. Since the SB may well check to you in the next round rather that bet into you. Further, if you have a good read on the player or can put them on a hand, it might still be correct to call based on implied odds for the last round of betting.

What does everyone think of playing your Open Ended Strait Draws like they were really 8 outs with 1 to come on the flop? If you don't improve on the turn, many times you have to bail. I think depends heavily on the texture of the table.

[Demana]

Hero might have been better off 2-betting the flop to buy himself a free turn card, but that is not what you asked [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm interested in the answer too because I will use the same calculations to call a flop bet, and then fold on the turn because I don't have the odds to see the river.

btw - I think you have negaitve implied odds because even if you hit the straight on the river, you will not have a big enough pot to justify the call on the turn.

Assuming that both you and the MP limper calls the turn bet, the pot is now $60. If you hit your straight and both pay to see it, the pot now has $90 in it. That is still only 8:1 on your turn call, meaning you shouldn't have called it (it is 8:1 instead of 9:1 because your bet on the river does not count towards the implied odds).

This is a time where knowing your table can come into play. If you think that both opponents would call a raise on the river, then your odds would go up to 10:1 and it _may_ be close enough to make the call. Still dicey since a J may scare a pair of 7s, though a six may make the under straight.

[Dominic]

Okay, I see where you guys are getting confused...you're mistaking the odds of hitting an open-ended straight draw with 2 cards to come (2.2-1) with the odds of hitting your straight on the turn (4.8-1)

You're giving yourself the wrong odds! Unless you absolutely know you're going to see the river card, your odds of hitting your straight are 4.8-1 on the turn AND 4.8-1 on the river. It's only 2.2-1 if you're going to see both cards.

So when you do your pot odds calculations on the flop, you should be doing it only with THE TURN IN MIND. So if you have $30 in the pot, you do not figure, "hey I've got 2-1 to hit my straight by the river, the bet's ony $10, so I should call." No. You've got to say, "It's going to cost me $10 to win $30 on a 5-1 chance of hitting my straight on the turn - I should fold."

Yes, you're approx. 2-1 to hit your straight with 2 cards to come. But if you don't hit it on turn, your odds of hitting your straight are now approx. 5-1.

Don't confuse the two!

Now, I know there are times where you might know your're going to see both cards, or times that you'll raise the flop bet in the hopes of getting a free card on the turn, etc., but if we're dealing with strictly pot-odds, you should almost always be thinking of the next card - and not "with two cards to come."

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
So when you do your pot odds calculations on the flop, you should be doing it only with THE TURN IN MIND.

[/ QUOTE ]

Surely, you must take into account the fact that two cards are coming to *some* degree. Consider the following (somewhat extreme) example: I'm playing a small stakes 1/2 game 10 handed. I'm in the big blind with A2s (say hearts are my suit). By some strange twist of fate (several rounds of limp-reraising, for instance), I get roped into seeing the flop for 4 bets. (Or maybe I'm just a horrible pre-flop player.) But more than that, everyone else calls, so there's $40 in the pot on the flop.

Now let's suppose the flop comes K 8 4, rainbow, the 8 is a heart. My only reasonable chance is the backdoor flush draw. The SB checks, I check, UTG bets, and everyone calls. It's up to me to close the action and I'm getting pot odds of 49-1.

Now, let's use the phrase "pot odds theory (POT)" to refer to the science of computing pot odds *on the flop* and using it to make a decision. If POT can only take the turn card into account, then POT tells me to fold. But that's ridiculous. Any "correct" POT has to conclude that calling is the right decision here. So "correct" POT must take the river card into consideration in *some* way. The question is, how?

[HUSKER'66]

[ QUOTE ]
Surely, you must take into account the fact that two cards are coming to *some* degree. Consider the following (somewhat extreme) example: I'm playing a small stakes 1/2 game 10 handed. I'm in the big blind with A2s (say hearts are my suit). By some strange twist of fate (several rounds of limp-reraising, for instance), I get roped into seeing the flop for 4 bets. (Or maybe I'm just a horrible pre-flop player.) But more than that, everyone else calls, so there's $40 in the pot on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

You might want to recheck your math.

2 * 4 * 10 = 80

Am I missing something?

Husker

[Boopotts]

Whuh? With one card to come, your odds are about 5:1 to hit. Assuming you'll get paid off in at least one spot (and maybe with a raise), you can call. Also, there's no law saying your opponent has to be betting a king, so a nine or a ten might do the trick.


As an aside, a better way to play this hand would be to raise the flop. Shutting out the limper isn't a disaster, since the chances are he was going to fold anyway (ragged flop, small pot, etc. etc.). If the turn is a brick you can either check or bet (I'd almost always bet) and then make a determination on the river as to what you ought to do if you miss again. On the balance, however, raising the flop here will show you a greater profit than flat calling when there aren't any players behind you (I know there's 1 player in this case, but you get the idea.

Re: Pot odds. The dirty little secret about hold 'em is that the concept of pot odds isn't very helpful. A much better idea is to look at your effective odds, which is a way of expressing the relationship between how much it's going to cost you to see your hand through vs. how much you expect to win if you end up dragging the pot. Assuming the player in the blind would pay off a raise if you hit on either the turn or river ( a big if, but let's go with it for now), you stand to win 50$ if you hit your hand. Your net investement, should you just call the turn and river, is going to be 15$. So you're getting 3.3 to 1 if you take the hand to the river. Yeah, sometimes he'll fold if you hit your hand and raise, but then also sometimes you'll hit a nine or ten and it will be good, or you'll be able to bluff the turn or the river, etc etc. On the balance I think you'll see that the 'intangibles' weigh in in your favor; especially since you have position on the lead bettor.

[tek]

[ QUOTE ]
Re: Pot odds. The dirty little secret about hold 'em is that the concept of pot odds isn't very helpful. A much better idea is to look at your effective odds, which is a way of expressing the relationship between how much it's going to cost you to see your hand through vs. how much you expect to win if you end up dragging the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's open the discussion to using effective odds vs. implied odds if pot odds are insufficient. I go with effective odds. If you are going to estimate how big the pot will be at a showdown, then you should factor in your total bets to get to the showdown.

[shadow29]

raise the flop

[Torgen]

On the flop, you have 8/47 = 4.875-to-1 odds to make your straight on the next card. With 4-to-1 pot odds, you should call, since you need only extract a single big bet (=2 small bets) between the turn and river to make up more than the deficit.
On the turn, you have 8/46 = 4.75-to-1 odds to make your straight on the river, and 4-to-1 pot odds again. If you think the SB will bet into you (allowing you to raise), or call your bet on the river if he checks, you definitely have pot odds to call still.

(Edit: beaten to the punch several times over?)