need help with pot odds

[snaphooks]

i'm a little confused with pot odds and could use some help.

say i hold a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the turn comes i'm holding an inside straight draw and a flush draw. according to sklansky, since i have more than 8 out cards, i should bet or raise even though i have nothing until that last card. correct?

or, also, if i am at the turn with 4 out cards my odds are just better than 10 to 1 and the pot odds are also 10 to 1 that means i should bet or raise even though my opponent obviously has me beat at the moment?

thanks for any help.

mw

[Dominic]

okay, snap...here it goes...
I assume we're talking limit and not no limit poker...

pot odds are fairly simple...in your first example, you have 13 outs for the last card - the 9 hearts that make your flush, and the 4 cards that make your gutshot, right? With 46 cards to come, that gives you 46/13 = (approx.) 3.3...this means there should be roughly 4 times your big bet (be conservative - always round up) in order for you to call a bet here. It's an easy call.

Now, your question is about the posibility of raising here...most decent players would probably do so, because it will give value to the river when they do hit their hands, and at certain tight tables it will have some folding equity (meaning, the raise itself will sometimes take the pot down right there).

But really, whether to raise here or just call, it all depends on the number of people in the pot, whether your opponents are tight or loose, or, maybe by getting an extra bet in on the turn will get maximum value for when you do turn your flush - how many times have you hit your flush on the river, bet, and get no callers? A flush is pretty easy to spot, so betting your draw on the turn is not a bad alternative.

But again, it all depends on the pot odds, the implied odds and your opponents.

Just to make it clear, though - calling on the turn is just fine, if you're a more conservative player.

In the second example, if you only have 4 outs, but you have the pot odds to call, just call - don't raise! By raising, you double the money you're putting into the pot, thus making it necessary to have 20x the bet in the pot instead of 10x - and now you no longer have the proper odds of calling!

The books can be confusing to a new player..but once you get a good amount of playing time in - especially live - you'll start to intuitively understand what they're talking about...

hope this helps, and good luck!

[holdemfan]

Dominic,
I need clarification on your calculation of odds. I did a reply on an earlier post on Implied odds. This is how I learned it. Am I incorrect?
He has 9 heart outs and 3 for the gutshot straight (one is a heart and was already counted)equalling 12 outs. If we have our 2 pocket cards and 3 on flop there are 47 left to make the hand. 12 will help and 35 will not. Odds are 35/12 or 35 divided by 12 equalling 2.92/1. Have I learned incorrectly?

[nicholswfu]

[ QUOTE ]
He has 9 heart outs and 3 for the gutshot straight (one is a heart and was already counted)equalling 12 outs. If we have our 2 pocket cards and 3 on flop there are 47 left to make the hand. 12 will help and 35 will not. Odds are 35/12 or 35 divided by 12 equalling 2.92/1. Have I learned incorrectly?



[/ QUOTE ]

You have the technical definition correct. Odds are (Probability/1-probabilty). Comparing 12 cards that help to 35 cards that will not gives you the odds (Probability=odds/1+odds). (12 good :35 bad) Here is the problem...

It is the probability of getting the next card that is more useful in whether or not to call. The probability is 12 good:47 total. The probability gives you your chance of getting a helpful card. The odds just give you info regarding the relationship between good cards to bad cards.

Probability is the number you want, even though we talk about "odds" a lot.
Nicholswfu

[Dominic]

Hold...I had a brain fart that day and decided to forget a step!

You're absolutely right about your calculations!

Sorry for the confusion, but at least I wrote my miscalculations with such confidence that I had you questioning yours! If I'm going to go down, I'll go down in flames!

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[holdemfan]

Thank you for your response and I can relate to the brain fart. I wasn't as much questioning my calculations because I did verify it before posting. I just wanted to politely say that you missed a couple steps in your calculation. My respect to you in your honesty.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
okay, snap...here it goes...
I assume we're talking limit and not no limit poker...

pot odds are fairly simple...in your first example, you have 13 outs for the last card - the 9 hearts that make your flush, and the 4 cards that make your gutshot, right? With 46 cards to come, that gives you 46/13 = (approx.) 3.3...this means there should be roughly 4 times your big bet (be conservative - always round up) in order for you to call a bet here. It's an easy call.

Now, your question is about the posibility of raising here...most decent players would probably do so, because it will give value to the river when they do hit their hands, and at certain tight tables it will have some folding equity (meaning, the raise itself will sometimes take the pot down right there).

But really, whether to raise here or just call, it all depends on the number of people in the pot, whether your opponents are tight or loose, or, maybe by getting an extra bet in on the turn will get maximum value for when you do turn your flush - how many times have you hit your flush on the river, bet, and get no callers? A flush is pretty easy to spot, so betting your draw on the turn is not a bad alternative.

But again, it all depends on the pot odds, the implied odds and your opponents.

Just to make it clear, though - calling on the turn is just fine, if you're a more conservative player.

In the second example, if you only have 4 outs, but you have the pot odds to call, just call - don't raise! By raising, you double the money you're putting into the pot, thus making it necessary to have 20x the bet in the pot instead of 10x - and now you no longer have the proper odds of calling!

The books can be confusing to a new player..but once you get a good amount of playing time in - especially live - you'll start to intuitively understand what they're talking about...

hope this helps, and good luck!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the second time I've seen you give advice on odds calculation that is absolutely incorrect. Please stop giving advice on calculating odds until you can do it correctly yourself.

To calculate odds, you take the number of cards that will not help you and compare it to the number of cards that will help you.

Example: You have a flush draw on the turn. There are 4 board cards and 2 in your hand. There are 46 unknown cards. 9 of them will make your flush. 37 will not. Your odds are 37:9 or just over 4 to 1 (4.11:1). You do not take the total number of cards remaining and compare it to the number of cards that help you (i.e. 46:9 or 5.11:1 is wrong)

(Plus in your example, you double counted the card that makes both your flush and straight)

[TonyBlair]

Jeff, are you a school teacher? This was brilliant. The incredulity of it all really came across. Keep it up. (A+)

[Dominic]

you're right, I'm wrong! I'm a doofus.

But I still would never draw to a staight when a three flush is on the board, Jeff.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Louie Landale]

No.

When all cards are face up, Betting and raising is for folks who will win more often than the number of callers. If you are heads up then one of you is the favorite and should bet, the other is the dog and should NOT bet. Notice the size of the pot (or "pot odds") has nothing to do with it in this pure face-up situation. Whether the dog hand should call is covered in the next paragraph.

When your hand is clearly NOT a favorite and the opponent bets, then you need to consider your odds against making it with the pot odds. With 4 outs you are about an 11:1 underdog (5 cards accounted for, 4 are good for you, 43 unaccounted (5+4+43=52); 43bad:4good = 11:1. If the pot offers more than 11 you should call; less than 11 you should fold. Betting or raising with this underdog hand is out of the question (if all cards are face up).

I suspect you confuse "bet" (means "bet or raise") with "invest" (means "bet or raise or call"). No. Bet means increase the wager, call means maintain the wager (and your pot show-down equity).

Now, there ARE times you should bet or raise with a hand that's not the best. If you have a flush draw (and are 2:1 against making with 2 cards to go) and you can expect 3 or more callers, then you should bet or raise. That's not a violation of my first paragraph since though you may not be "the" favorite you are never-the-less "one of the" favorites. In this case, 2 times you lose one bet and one time you win 3 bets, for a net of 1 over 3 attempts or a +EV of 1/3 bet per attempt; that's a good bet.

- Louie