Some NFL Week 3 Picks

[anatta]

These are my picks. I don't line shop or know too much but...

From Pinny:

Baltimore -3 (+113). Carson Palmer is in his 3rd game. Enter Ray Lewis and Co. Week one loss has awakened Baltimore who rebounded nicely and dominated Steelers. I think they get it now, nobody cares about Neon Deon or preseason expectations, time to strap it on. (Strap it on they did against Maddox (out)) Jamal Lewis, while not like last year, had 2 TD 67 yrds last week. I like Baltimore's D to shut down Carson, create turnovers. Memo to Carson, these guys aren't the Stanford Cardinal.

Philly (-3) I forget the vig but not bad, good luck getting this as I got it prior to Mondays Game. Lions are 2-0, but lost that other good young wideout again(not Roy Williams who is obviously quite sick and could cause problems vs. short DB's), I dunno, Philly looks good, and its still Detroit to me.


Oakland (-3 -120). I think people think Tampa won a Super Bowl a year and a half ago. No. Warren Sapp, Keyshawn, Lynch, and who knows who else did, these guys didn't make playoff and look to be maybe revolting against Gruden. Raiders are home again for second straight week, they are used to being there, coming off a win vs. Bills who got lucky to push as I took Raiders last week. Granted Bills always look bad vs Pass Rush, but Raiders were all over Bleed-so. Raiders outplayed Steelers 2nd half of game one when they finally put in Gallery (who is scary), and so they have won 6 straight quarters. They still are stupid, but that's why they are the Raiders.

[Smackdab]

I like the Baltinore game myself. Had pretty much the same read on it you have posted. In addition to the "D" aspect the Ravens bring to the table, also interesting is last 6 times these teams have lined up Lewis has averaged 127 yds/game with 6 touchdowns.

I highly respect Big Al who has said this game not that strong of a play. Would never go against his "Shoe In" but I still like this play. In deference to Big Al's opinion and proven experience, I may however have to make this a $300 selction in the 3+1 Challenge instead of the $400 I was going to make it.

Good luck!!

[natedogg]

I think laying 3 pts on the road vs. a division rival is a recipe for disaster. The last time the Ravens went into a divisional road game laying 3 pts they lost by 17.

natedogg

[craig r]

in fact, home dogs are the only subset that has won since 1990.

craig

[anatta]

Yeah, I know betting against home dogs a no no from Wong.

Tommy A. once posted that he would read Jim Brier's book if for nothing else to learn more about what his opponents were thinking. You guys might want to look at these picks the same way, this is how the novice sports better thinks, since I have two friends and we all kinda suck at this I suspect, but anyways they both came to the same conclusions as I did semi-independently.

Like I couldn't tell you anything about Detroit other than what I see on the highlights or remember from last season, yet I like Philly...

[anatta]

You're no doubt correct, Natedogg. Keep those totals coming, you are on a roll!

[Big Al]

Natedogg is absolutely correct. I also dont care for your other pick, going against Detroit. If a team is a home dog, you either go with the home team or stay away from the game. To tout it as a strong play is not the smart play. The Lions game is one to stay away from, IMO.--Big Al--

[Smackdab]

Open question for either Big Al or Natedogg......

Seems obvious to me judging from your posts you both know your stuff when it comes to betting football. As a novice sports bettor I guess I put too much emphasis into looking at matchups vs trends. Note that you both emphasize here that betting against home dogs especially divisional home dogs is a recipe for disaster.

I am assuming over the long run home dogs are a -EV play. Is there ever a situation in which you may consider betting against a home dog? If so ...... what criteria would you look for in making this decision?

I am a novice, any advice from either of you would be greatly appreciated.

TIA

[MicroBob]

Funny that when you say that Baltimore's D 'gets it now' I was thinking the same thing about Cincy's offense.
I'm not convinced on this one.


Detroit is +4.5 from what I've seen. I don't think you'll find Philly at -3 anymore.
Philly has a short week after a BIG monday-night game (just look at what happened to GB after their short-week). Detroit is decent at home and I just don't think this one is automatic.

[anatta]

I checked last night and what I really got was -3.5 (-107), sorry and yes, I know that .5 is significant. Still pretty good compared to now, I think the line was so good prior to Mon game since injuries can happen. Lucky for me, I don't think Philly lost anyone. Unfortunately, my strong plays suck, but its not gonna stop me from having fun this Sunday. I know Sport Handicapping requires more time and effort than what I give it, but I have a good time watching a game with action on it, so thats +EV too. Good luck everybody.