Would you make this call???

[Rubber Soul]

I am not sure if this post should be in this section or the small stakes NL section... Anywho, here ya go:

I moved up to 1/2 NL cash game level this week and was confronted with one of the biggest dollar size hands of my poker career (may be peanuts for some of you, but it was big time money for me at this point)... I would like to know if you would have made the call I faced....

Pre-deal:

-I have $720 sitting one off the button (I'm playing well and have far more than anyone else at the table)...

-seat 3 has $80

-guy on the button has $295

I am dealt Q-Q...

Action is checked to me raise to $15...

guy on the button calls...

so does seat 3...

Flop comes Q-10-J rainbow...

seat 3 checks...

I bet $37...

after about 5 seconds the guy on the button goes all in for approx. $280... (he hadn't made any all-in plays up until that point and was playing fairly tight)...

seat 3 folds...

So there you have it, you are holding 3 queens.. Do you make the call???

I'll wait for several responses and I'll come back and let you know what I did and how it turned out...


-

[kpux]

CALL

You are behind only one plausible hand, which probably would have raised preflop. Bet all your dollars.

[muzungu]

Rubber soul: no need do wait for several responses. Hands like these seem tricky at first... maybe he has it... maybe he doesn't... when in reality they are very simple.

What you need to do is look at how big the pot will be if you call, and how much you are calling for. In this case, he is raising you $243 into a pot that will be $575 in total.

Now, you figure out how much equity you have if you call and he has a str8. You will make a boat roughly 1/3 of the time, so your stake in the pot is $575/3 - $192, give or take.

So, even if he is sure to have a str8, you are only losing $243 (what you are paying) - $192 (what your hand is worth) = $51 if you call. So calling is only a small mistake at worst.

(Aside: if I were playing, I'd do the above math, stop here, say, "well, he doesn't have it every time, and i am way ahead if he doesn't" and call. But I'll show the rest.)

Now: notice that if you are ahead you are probably way ahead. If he has JJ/TT, he only has one out, and with QJ/QT/JT he is drawing to runner/runner. His best chance is something like KQ, in which case he wins about 1/4 of the time.

So, all in all, lets say that if you are winning, he is going to outdraw you about 10% of the time. So you win 90% of the time, making your hand (if he doesn't have the str8) worth $575(.9) = $518.

Now, the last step is to put the two parts together. As an excercise, lets say he has it 3/4 of the time. That means your hand is worth $192 (or, the $575 pot 1/3 of the time, to reiterate) 75% of the time and $518 (or the $575 pot 9 out of 10 times) 1/4 of the time.

So, your total equity is:

$192 x (3/4) + $518 x (1/4) = $144 + $130 = $274.

Which is more than the $243 you have to wager, so you call.

Note that I made a couple estimates here (most notably, that he has a str8 3/4 of the time.) This is pretty pessimistic, so you are probably in better shape than my math. The point is, once you make your reads, the math is always the same- if you think he has a str8 1/2 the time, punch the different #s in the same formulas, and you are all set.

Notice that there is no BS "well, maybe he has AK... but he would have raised it preflop... maybe he has a set" here. This is how you whould be thinking about these situations, rather than shrugging your shoulders and guessing.

-muz

[arkose]

ya i think you have to make this call, for the reasoning already posted...

and i would guess he actually has a str8 less than 75% of the time...why make a huge overbet into a small pot when there is a rainbow board? why scare off your customers? ......i think a made str8 is more likely to raise you (but not all-in) on the flop and/or go allin on the turn

one note though....why raise to $15 in a 1/2 blind game when the action has passed to you in the CO? you are only going to get called by really good hands (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK), and you are setting yourself up to play a big pot....which will be harder to fold if someone indeed cracks you with AK (or if someone just calls with aces or kings behind you and lets you become pot committed before letting the cat out of the bag)

hmm now i'm starting to think maybe this guy does have AK more often than not...by your huge $15 raise, he *knows* you have a really big pair...and he *knows* there is a real good chance you hit a set....so he's gonna make you pay for it

[random]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm now i'm starting to think maybe this guy does have AK more often than not...by your huge $15 raise, he *knows* you have a really big pair...and he *knows* there is a real good chance you hit a set....so he's gonna make you pay for it

[/ QUOTE ] I agree. His overbet was not out of line.

[ QUOTE ]
why raise to $15 in a 1/2 blind game

[/ QUOTE ] It's easier to protect your stack against the other deep stacks... and while people *shouldn't* call without big hands, they still do. When I started playing PP 1/2NL a while back, every time I got aces, I used to raise to 20 every time and then push on the flop. This was actually a pretty profitable play. There's another guy, who I saw to be a winning player, pushed many many times preflop with aces without even a lot of action in front of him, and he still got called. Hilarious.

RE the first post about button reraising with AK, I wouldn't reraise with AK right there, and I don't think most other people would either.

[arkose]

well yes, it depends on how the table is playing...if you can raise to $15 and get calls with bad hands, then by all means...

and i wouldnt reraise preflop with AK either....unless i had a short stack and wanted to pot commit

[random]

I didn't mean to make it sound like you weren't so smart and I needed to state the obvious. The important line from my post is that it protects the stack. If each player had 1000, there are big implied odds for a wide range of hands button can call 15 with.

Also, it is a rare 1-2 game that won't have some suckers calling more than 1/10th of their stack for obviously behind hands.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
one note though....why raise to $15 in a 1/2 blind game when the action has passed to you in the CO? you are only going to get called by really good hands (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK), and you are setting yourself up to play a big pot....which will be harder to fold if someone indeed cracks you with AK (or if someone just calls with aces or kings behind you and lets you become pot committed before letting the cat out of the bag)


[/ QUOTE ]

This is very untrue in a live 1/2 game. These games are loose as hell, and a $15 raise is pretty much standard. I've seen guys who will open for $30 UTG and still get two callers. For some reason live games are very much different from online games in this respect. He gets called by all sorts of hands such as KJ, 77, and the like.

Justin A

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
This is very untrue in a live 1/2 game. These games are loose as hell, and a $15 raise is pretty much standard. I've seen guys who will open for $30 UTG and still get two callers. For some reason live games are very much different from online games in this respect. He gets called by all sorts of hands such as KJ, 77, and the like.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turns out I'm a moron and my post should be disregarded. I misread the original post. He said 1/2 Cash game and I assumed it was live.

Justin A

[arkose]

i thought it was probably live as well, although it turns out it wasn't...

in the 3-6 live game i play, if you raise 7xBB to ~40 you usually don't get much action.....so ya, depends on the table...if you can get calls, then raising to 15 is fine

since it was online....i doubt many will call you without a good hand, huge preflop raises tend to scare people away (unless you do it a lot)....although to be completely honest, if this was partypoker, and someone went all-in, i would half expect to see them with KQ