Hand analysis - KQs

JinX11 · #1 09-17-2004, 02:45 PM

Doing some homework on this morning's hands, figuring where I could have saved a bet or three throughout the sessions. Interested in comments on this hand - in particular, the flop raise and calling the turn bet with little more than a gutshot. At first, I thought my line was ok, then I thought it wasn't, now...I leave it to the 2+2 crowd.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB
Main Pot: 16.50 BB, between UTG and UTG+1.

Evan · #2 09-17-2004, 02:47 PM

Fold the turn.

bisonbison · #3 09-17-2004, 02:50 PM

He can't fold the turn. He has the odds to spike a jack.

Piiop · #4 09-17-2004, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? He almost has odds to continue if you just give him 3 J's as outs. Add in any other discounted K's, Q's, and the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I'd say it's a call.

sthief09 · #5 09-18-2004, 10:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

boooooooooooooo

dejableu · #6 09-17-2004, 03:56 PM

I think your flop and turn plays were both correct. With two overcards and an inside straight draw on the flop, a raise from your position is standard.

On the turn, you have 12.5 big bets already in the pot and it's only costing you one. You have to assume 3-4 outs for the straight and at least 2 for your overcards (here I'm presuming top pair and second kicker win 1/3 of the time).

In terms of pot odds, you only needed 4 outs to justify a call, so even based on that your call was clearly correct. But taking implied odds into consideration, you were obviously folding if you missed, and raising if you hit a non-club J. So based on the 3 non-club Js alone, I think you can make this call.

ErrantNight · #7 09-17-2004, 04:08 PM

you've got two overcards that might be tainted outs... how is his equity strong enough to justify a raise here? am i missing something? 9 outs twice is really enough to justify a raise into this field on a fairly weak draw? even if you hit you may not be ahead... if you hit and go ahead there's still plenty of redraws for your opponents here... why raise?

dejableu · #8 09-17-2004, 04:21 PM

I don't know where you got 9 outs from. I count 10, with 4 Js, 3 Ks, and 3 Qs. Even if we discount his outs to 7 or 8, he improves to the best hand at least 30 percent of the time. Given that he is in a 5-way pot, I think he has enough equity for a raise. Plus, other considerations include a possible free card since he is last to act on the turn, and the possibility of cleaning up outs by getting AQ or Ax to fold when it's two bets instead of one.

ErrantNight · #9 09-17-2004, 04:25 PM

he has 7 solid outs... 3 jacks that aren't clubs, 2 kings and 2 queens that aren't clubs... and the 3 clubs K,Q,J. which leaves him at 8.5 and considering it might be overly conservative to suggest that clubs definitely counterfeit his hand i said 9. but you're suggesting that over the course of the next two streets he improves to a real hand 30% of the time that in this size field it's automatically the best? i'd say only the three off club jacks give him the lock nuts... everything else (and even that) is suspect. it's a pure drawing hand in a large field with outs that don't guarantee a pot and outs that even if they aren't immediately counterfeited on the turn could be so on the river. i just don't see this as a strong position to be in.

dejableu · #10 09-17-2004, 04:42 PM

None of his outs "guarantee" him the best hand. Even if he draws a J, there's the possibility that someone could re-draw on the river with a K or Q for broadway or another card for a flush or a paired board for a full house.

With outs, you are trying to determine, on average, how many cards will give Hero the best hand at showdown. So, on average, what percentage of the time is he going to win the hand when he spikes a J for a K-high straight? On average, what percentage of the time is he going to win with top pair and second kicker?

I don't know the precise answers to these questions. But I would give him all 3 non-club Js because he will win an extraordinarily high percentage of the time in those circumstances. I would also give him at least half an out for J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. With the 6 Ks and Qs, I'm not sure, but wouldn't you agree that, on average, top pair is going to win between 1/3 and 1/2 of the time? If you do, then that's another 2-3 outs.

So, conservatively speaking, we're giving Hero 6 outs. That's still the best hand in more than 25 percent of showdowns. I like Hero's raise because I think it makes his percentage go up, especially with respect to the K and Q outs.