Josh Arieh's call all-in.

[EnderW27]

I think that Josh made a horrible call all in late in the second episode this evening. Here's the situation:

Board is As Kh Qh

You hold the Th 9h. So an inside straight/3rd best flush/inside straight flush draw. Three overcards. An opponent who has you easily covered moves in on you. What do you do?

Do you:
A) Fold
B) Call and pray for help because you KNOW you're behind
C) Call and berate your opponent for betting with the best hand and the best chance of winning.

The opponent had AJ. Truly, that's as bad of a hand as Josh could hope for and he was still not favored to win the hand. Let's look at some percentages:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV

Js Ad 570 57.58 414 41.82 6 0.61 0.579
Th 9h 414 41.82 570 57.58 6 0.61 0.421

Ks Qd 568 57.37 413 41.72 9 0.91 0.578
Th 9h 413 41.72 568 57.37 9 0.91 0.422

Js Td 561 56.67 360 36.36 69 6.97 0.602
Th 9h 360 36.36 561 56.67 69 6.97 0.398

Qd Ah 616 62.22 365 36.87 9 0.91 0.627
Th 9h 365 36.87 616 62.22 9 0.91 0.373

Qs Qd 655 66.16 326 32.93 9 0.91 0.666
Th 9h 326 32.93 655 66.16 9 0.91 0.334

Ah Jh 888 89.70 93 9.39 9 0.91 0.902
Th 9h 93 9.39 888 89.70 9 0.91 0.098


Baring an absolute bluff, which is the only thing Josh could beat at the moment, he was likely to lose anywhere from 56% of the time all the way up to 90% of the time.

Was he just enamored with the possibility of making that straight flush? How can you call that all-in? Even if he had "pot odds" to do so, it would still leave him, at best, on a coinflip.

[random]

wtf? since when is having pot odds not justification to make a call?

[EnderW27]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? since when is having pot odds not justification to make a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because, at best, he's a coinflip. That's at best. With two cards to go he could be horribly beaten as the percentages show and there's no way he had the pot odds to call that.

[random]

Do you just not know what pot odds are? There's a little less than 1.5 million in the pot and he has to call .5. Hmmmm that's getting 3:1. He wins more than 25% of the time in every one of those situations except for AhJh. He'd be a huge pussy to fold.

[EnderW27]

I know what pot odds are. I just don't believe that there was 1.5 million in the pot before he had to make his call. Unfortunately, I can't access my Tivo right now but I'll check it again in the morning.
If the pot really was 1.5 million then yes, he had the odds to call $500,000 and my reasoning is in error. But I really don't recall this being the case.

[Jaquen H'gar]

Regardless, it doesn't excuse his inexcusable behavior. I think Norm Chad termed it corectly: "classless."

[EnderW27]

Just reviewed the tape. It doesn't give all the details but here's as best I can gather from the limited info ESPN provides.

Arieh had ~ 1m in chips.
Harry had ~ 1.2 million
That's about as best I can guess, even though the math doesn't work out quite like that as you'll see later.

Josh raises 80,000 pf. Two callers. One would think there would be about 250,000-350,000 in the pot but with blinds and antes unknown it's hard to pinpoint down.

Flop comes and the announcers say Josh bets 400K. Harry raises all in and now, finally, we get an official pot size of 1.3 million.

But here's where the math gets funky. Josh calls and the pot goes up to 1.9 million, so Josh must have called an additional 600K into a 1.3m pot.
BUT...if he bet 400 and then put 600 more in, along with his opponent, there's NO WAY the pot can be less than 2m. Something's not right here.


But given that ESPN doesn't always give us the full story, let's just go on what was presented in the broadcast.
Josh has put half his stack into the pot and is now faced with putting the rest of his money in on a draw. He'd be getting 2:1 odds on his call.

Is he getting pot odds to do so if his opponent just has a pair? Yes. He's getting a pretty good overlay. But even Josh didn't think he "just" had AJ.

With two pair, AhJd, a set, two jacks with the Jh, and many other hands, Josh's call is somewhere between just barely +ev or just barely -ev (62-67% liklihood Harry would win). It's a coinflip and Josh is willing to CALL and risk his tournament on it.
That excludes the hands where Josh is so dominated (AhXh, etc.) that it's most assuredly -ev to call.

In short, if he knew what his opponent had, he would have the pot odds to call. But I still believe, after review, it was a lousy call to make and he should have saved his 600K for another spot.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? since when is having pot odds not justification to make a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not talking about this hand in particular, but there are certainly times in a tournament when having pot odds would not justify a call.

[patgilvary]

there are MANY times in a tournament when having pot odds is not a reason to call--especially all-in.

[SmoothToquer]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? since when is having pot odds not justification to make a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

When the lost coinflip might cost you a chance at 5mi. Save those chips for later when you are a bigger favorite.
This ain't no cash game. There is no "long run" to make up for a loss in this situation.