Possibility of losing 100 BB's in one session?

[Posititve EV]

I know its not likely but is it possible to lose 100 Big bets in an 8 hour session if you are playing excellent poker? I believe it is even if you are playing correctly but I wanted to make sure.

I moved up to 20/40 for the 1st time and lost $4,000 in an 8 hour session. A few things to note. One guy was on such a rush that he raised almost everytime and won about 70 % of the hands, it was sick he always caught his pairs or hit his draws. From my count he walked away with at least $8,000 profit in probably about 10 hours.

I know I made some errors in playing but nothign major. I believe I took a lot of bad beats which I am fine with as long as I made the correct play based on my expection in the long run.

For example I had KK dealt to me 3 times and lost all three either to having to fold when an ace flopped causing heavy betting or someone hiting their draw on the river. I also was rivered about 5 times when my oppents hit their inside or opened flush/straight draws. Another time I flop top 2 pair and keep raising only to get beat when the guy next to me trips up his pocket 4's on the turn even though it was 3 bet preflop and also on the flop. Another time my trip 10's are outkicked.

Although it was my 1st time playing 20/40 I believe I played very good. Some at the table talked about the game playign like a 40/80 because of the rush player raising alomst every time. This might have helped me lose 100 BB.

I have played 100's of hours online, read about 15 books, and constantly think about the game, and replay hands to see where I could of gained or saved some bets.

Does it seemed like I played bad in this game or I just hit a streak where the underdogs prevailed.

Thanks

[Nate tha' Great]

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One guy was on such a rush that he raised almost everytime and won about 70 % of the hands, it was sick he always caught his pairs or hit his draws. From my count he walked away with at least $8,000 profit in probably about 10 hours.

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If a sh*tty player can win $8K in ten hours, don't you think that a good player can lose $4K in roughly the same time frame?

I don't know if you're a great player or not. But is it possible that you can play great poker, get into a great, wild, delicious 20/40, and lose this much money?

Absolutely.

[obi---one]

I never lost 100bb's in a session in my life be it 8 hours of 48hrs. you probably had some bad luck but need to tidy up your game as well

[Nate tha' Great]

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I never lost 100bb's in a session in my life be it 8 hours of 48hrs. you probably had some bad luck but need to tidy up your game as well

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Say I have a win rate of 2/BB hr and a standard deviation of 16 BB/hr. I will have a -100 BB downswing in an 8 hour session once in 200 times or so.

Say I aim to play 25 hours a week, and 3 tables at a time ... that works out to 3900 table hours or about 500 equivalent 8-hour blocks of play each year. I should *expect* to have a -100 BB run a couple times a year playing this many hands.

Poker players are of two categories when it comes to extremely bad runs:

1) Those who have experienced one;
2) Those who will.

[Noo Yawk]

Hi Nate,

Bad downswings are a fact of poker. The problem is you are only using probability to detrmine the cause. After a certain amount of loss there has to come a point where even a great player says I give up, and that point is way before 100 BB's. The simple fact is even above average players that have a solid game when winning, are extremely prone to a deteriorating game and poor judgement when losing.

If You are talking about multi tabling on line, I would tend to view each table as a seperate session. But for arguments sake lets just say you don't. There are so many choices on-line for game selection, why not just leave the table that isn't going well for you? Why not come back another time? Why not just concentrate on one game for the rest of the session? There are plenty of ways to avoid a loss that big. Most people simply aren't as good when they're losing. The only exception I see is in a home game with reasonable stakes for your bankroll where you're having fun.

Ask a poker player who's stuck 100 BB's why their still playing and they'll tell you because the games good and they have an edge. Ask a craps player the same question when they're losing a relative amount and you'll get the real answer: "I'm not leaving until I get my freakin' money back".

[Senor Choppy]

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If You are talking about multi tabling on line, I would tend to view each table as a seperate session. But for arguments sake lets just say you don't. There are so many choices on-line for game selection, why not just leave the table that isn't going well for you? Why not come back another time? Why not just concentrate on one game for the rest of the session? There are plenty of ways to avoid a loss that big.

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That's like saying there are plenty of ways to avoid a roulette wheel hitting red 10 times in a row.

No matter who you are, 100 bb downswings will happen even if you play like a god, and no amount of changing tables, switching seats, or putting 24 hours in between sessions is going to change that.

[Noo Yawk]

There is a similar post in the pshycology forum, and I'll give the same type of response.

There is not a chance you took 8 hours worth of bad beats, lost 100 big bets and played optimally. Your decision not to leave before having such a big loss alone is cause to believe that somewhere along the line your edge was gone.

I don't know your play, so I can't judge exactly how each hand went down, but I guarentee that if some of the real experts on this forum were sweating you they'd catch a dozen leaks. Stick around this forum for a while and in a year or so look back at this post and you'll realize that I'm right.

[Nate tha' Great]

A player with a true win rate of +1/BB hour but variance of 20/BB hr (entirely possible in a game this LAG) will lose $4000 or more in an 8-hour session around 2.8 percent of the time. That's not a huge percentage but s*it happens when you log a lot of hours. I've had parallel bad runs in LAGro online games and while I have some leaks, I'm a good player and a substantial long-term winner.

You are radically underestimating the degree of variance instrinic to the game, and especially a loose and aggressive game like this one.

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There is a similar post in the pshycology forum, and I'll give the same type of response.

There is not a chance you took 8 hours worth of bad beats, lost 100 big bets and played optimally. Your decision not to leave before having such a big loss alone is cause to believe that somewhere along the line your edge was gone.

I don't know your play, so I can't judge exactly how each hand went down, but I guarentee that if some of the real experts on this forum were sweating you they'd catch a dozen leaks. Stick around this forum for a while and in a year or so look back at this post and you'll realize that I'm right.

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[Noo Yawk]

Hi Nate,

Read the original post. His first time playing 20-40, and lost 100 BB's after 8 hrs. of bad beats. Not a chance he was playing optimally. Anything else would be just giving excuses.

Not trying to undermine your stats Nate, but 100 BB's is alot of money to lose in even the wildest games for a great player. It's possible, but rare. For a newbie, there is no way he played optimally.

[Rushmore]

To be fair, he never said he played optimally. In fact, he goes out of his way to tell us that he "made some mistakes."

I believe he has underestimated the number and magnitude of the mistakes he made.

He does not indicate that he was playing shorthanded, so I assume we're talking fullish table.

At least shorthanded, it would be more understandable.

But still a product of suboptimal play and bad decisions.