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#1
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NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
NL ring game at Bellagio, 10-20 blinds. I have a little over 3,000 on the table, both of the other relevant players in this hand have me covered.
I am on the button. 2 players limp to me, I limp for 20 with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], both blinds call, 5 people see the flop ($100 in the pot). Flop 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Small blind (who seemed to be a solid player) bets $200 into a pot of $100 (I put him on a king and assume the bet size is to drive out any draws). 2 players in front of me call $200 (one of them, the second caller, is a well-known celebrity in the poker world), I easily have the pot odds to draw to my open ender, so I call. $900 in the pot. Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Small blind bets $500. Celebrity CALLS. Hmmm. While this could have meant top-pair/bad kicker, I suspected the caller's hand was most likely hand a heart draw, which meant that I might only have 6 outs instead of 8. So while I could draw to the nuts getting 1900:500 pot odds, I could be putting myself in a position to have to make a very hard decision if one of my dirty outs came. What's your move? Results will follow later. |
#2
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
I'd be done with this hand on the turn. As you said, 2 of your outs are likely not clean and if they are you may be drawing to a chop. Also, it's doubtful anyone has a monster hand here, so you have to question how well your hand is going to pay off when you do get there.
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#3
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
you think he's going to chop!? I think there's a great chance his hand will be good if he hits his 6 outer. also his hand is well disguised which makes his chances of getting paid off even better.
he really only needs better than 6.5 to 1 to make the call profitable, and he's currently getting a little worse than 4 to 1 closing the action. he needs to make 1350 on the river to break even on his call, and I would say with two players that's very likely. I think this is a situation where you have to judge how committed both players are to their hands on the turn. I have a hard time putting the guy in between on a flush draw, usually people won't just call all their chips getting bad odds with a flush draw. depends on the player. the only situation you hate on the river is if a heart comes and makes you a straight and it goes check, bet and now you have to make the read. if it goes bet and raise you can obviously fold it. --turnipmonster |
#4
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
Turnip - No I don't think he's going to chop, just noting that it is a possibility.
I could easily put the guy in the middle on a flush draw if he expects an overcall or has a fd+. Obviously the fact that the hero is acting last helps his implied odds here but to what extent depends heavily on the players. With 3 players in to the river anything that falls can be a scare card and I wouldn't put it past these players to heavily consider the OESD as well as the flush draw. |
#5
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
usually i'd fold.
yes some semblence of implied odds are there, plus occasionally you should be able to make a high-prob steal on the river, but it's generally not worth it unless you've got a deep-stacked opponent you know will pay you off. matt |
#6
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
It depends upon your money situation after. If you lose that $3,000, would you mind leaving the game or do you have money to buy back in?
Is the game a great game that you want to stay in? If you, I'd say pick a shot later. Remember, say a +600 EV move isn't worth taking if it prevents you from playing further and making several other $800EV moves in the future. |
#7
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
[ QUOTE ]
It depends upon your money situation after. If you lose that $3,000, would you mind leaving the game or do you have money to buy back in? [/ QUOTE ] I had money to re-buy, and would likely have done so, as this was a pretty good game. However, I would be very hesitant to put my whole stack in on the river without the nuts, which certainly was a major factor in my decision whether to call the turn. |
#8
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
I would probably fold. Here is my thinking:
I would only invest that $500 if I thought I could double up through the SB if I hit. I don't like paying a lot for draws unless they have huge implied odds. If you think the SB has a hand like KK, and therefore would probably bet-out the river when you hit the nuts (that 7-9 is hard to see coming), and would be pot-committed when you moved in with the straight and pay you off, then the call on the turn makes sense. But if he is playing say KQ, and won't pay you off, then I don't make that call. With 3 players you can't bluff the river, and as you said, you might only have six outs, and end up going bust if both draws hit. I like the laydown. |
#9
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
I don't see how you are getting the pot odds to call the flop bet with only 6 clean outs.
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#10
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Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you are getting the pot odds to call the flop bet with only 6 clean outs. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't know on the flop whether I had 6 outs or 8, but I certainly wasn't laying down an open-ender getting 7:2 with 4-way action and deep stacks (edit: also remember my call closed the action). |
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