Current poker boom - how long can it last?

[Clarkmeister]

Just wondering. I suppose when the fad is over, poker games will still be much better than they were 3 years ago, but not nearly as good as today. I'd guess we are either at the peak right now, or within one year of the peak. Maybe 2-3 years left until the fad is totally over and we settle in at what could be termed "the new norm" and level out. In other words, enjoy it while it lasts but I'd guess we will all need to improve to continue surviving at whatever level each of us is currently at as the games get tougher.

[Ruddiger]

I agree, but I also know there are a lot of people who are still interested in learning about and playing poker but aren't yet, if they can be brought in someway things will continue to be good for much longer.

[DcifrThs]

i've been thinking about this a lot lately and have concluded that it depends on the average rate of bankroll loss as a result of play that is so bad itmakes even the most marginal player who plays tight and decently on the flop and river into a winner. the faster the rate the sooner the plateau, imo...

so maybe a year, maybe two, maybe more but certainly not more than 5...how long has reality TV been around, and mutated, etc. etc. etc....nothing lasts forever, but at least we are in ther here and now, right?

-Barron

[CORed]

I hope the poker fad lasts a while longer, but reality TV can't go away soon enough for me. Five minutes of "Fear Factor" or "The Batchelor" makes me nostalgic about such gems as "Gilligan's Island", "My Mother the Car" and "Mr. Ed".

[Joe Tall]

Interesting conversation came up in my home game a few weeks ago.

First some history: I've been playing poker since I was kid with the same 5 guys. Then, through our teens, my brother and his friends joined. Routinely we have played every other month (as we rotate 12 guys through) for last 22 years.

Foxwoods casino has been open for 12 years. It opened the year we all turned 21, making us old enough to go. All of us have routinely traveled down to Foxwoods over this time. Losing thousands playing blackjack/craps/roulette, etc.

Yet, no one stepped into the Poker room until late last year.

How could this be?

Well, there was this 'mystique' to the poker room, this sound of chips and old men grumbling. We had a fear of it.

Now we don't.

You can draw your own conclusions, but I see no reason the boom will subside for quite some time as these dozen will never play blackjack/roulette or craps as long as there is a poker room. I'm sure my situation does not stand alone.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[JoeU]

Joe,

This is unbelieveably well put. I remember some of my first trips to Foxwoods, walking downstairs into the poker room (where it was originally)to use the bathroom and thinking "I could never play here. Everyone here is a PROFESSIONAL! I'd get killed!". Then I took the time to learn the game after seeing the WSOP on the Discovery Channel. Today, I have absolutely no fear walking into a poker room and playing. I'm sure "reality tv" has taken some of the blackjack/roulette/craps players from those games and moved them to poker. Most "gamblers" don't stop when the bankroll runs dry (unfortunately), so I suspect that this boom is more like a large wave, and a significant portion of the crowd is here to stay.

Joe

[Cptkernow]

I dont have enough books to lend my mates/ acquaintances who in the last few months decided that they want to play poker online.

This is a combination of poker entering the zeitgiest and them observing me become quite significantly more wealth due to online poker.

This has helped some of them overcome intial sceptecism about "Gambling", and decide to get involved in the action.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess we will all need to improve to continue surviving at whatever level each of us is currently at as the games get tougher.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't help when <font color="red"> certain people </font> (AHEM!) go telling the whole world on Amazon about new books that will make them better [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Can't anyone keep a secret around here [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

But seriously, folks. I think that we are still on the up-side of the growth curve for many reasons. I think that there is still a large untapped market that has not yet, but will, try poker, or will move up from home games to B&amp;M or internet games. Poker is apparently very hot in college these days. These players will, we hope, graduate, get jobs and try to move up.

Part of this is a variation on the idea that if you build it, they will come. As B&amp;M games become more available for various reasons, more people will play. More importantly, as the general population becomes more confident of the reliability and honest of on-line games, more will play.

And I think that in the relatively near future, the legal issue of internet gambling in this country will be addressed. The ultimate solution is predictable. The government cannot stop it, so they will attempt to regulate it and to tax it. As LBJ said, it's better to have them inside the tent peeing out, than outside peeing in. Here in Minnesota, the legislature just concluded a session in which they accomplished absolutely nothing. But the proposed laws regarding poker would have expanded the game and increased the taxes on it. Typical.

As poker grows, the marketing of the game will become more wide spread and more sophisticated, particularly if on-line is legal here. Despite what would look like market saturation, -EV games like Lotto continue to grow with good marketing. Look what has happened to slots in B&amp;Ms over the last 10-20 years, speaking of -EV and growth. I would see the same for poker.

As more and more players are attracted to the game, the obvious break-down will occur. A few will become very good, a few more will regularly make money, the majority will hover right at/below break-even, and a few will bust out and leave forever. Many of those just below break-even will continue to play, either because it is cheap entertainment, or through self-delusion about results or ability, or because they are getting better.

In short, I think that the rate of growth will slow down, but in absolute terms, the market will continue to grow for quite a while. The fishiness may peak soon, but the fish are always with us.

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

The problem with comparing poker to other casino games/gambling is that it lacks the things that make these things so popular. Everybody knows slots are -EV, but their draw is the lottery-like chance to hit it huge with one spin. Add to that their (what I assume is) low cost to the casino and their ability to pack a ton of them into a given space and you have a very popular product. Roulette is very similar, but with a somewhat sofisticated air to it. Craps and blackjack are/can be quite social games that are or at least seem to be a 50/50 proposition if you play them right. They're something you can go play with your buddies and not have to be playing against them and taking their money.

Poker, on the other hand, is scary to a lot of people. Even if you play home games or fool around with your friends, the poker room looks daunting and you're sure there's a shark at every table waiting to gobble you up. How many people have you heard say they like playing poker, but they'd "never play it in a casino"? It's a game where you don't have a set mathematical chance of winning. The skill involved and the wide variety of people who play it provide the possibility that you are so outclassed that you have very little chance of even hitting something lucky and breaking even. What's more, there's very little chance even if you're good of hitting a big payday just walking through the casino and sitting down to a cash game. It's a grind and most people don't get excited at the proposition of maybe grinding out $100 after a few hours in a low/micro limit game.

That being said, once you do sit down and get into the game, that's all turned around. It's not so scary any more and you realize that maybe you are the shark. The increased complexity and subtleties over any other casino game make it so much more fun to sit in a poker game. Hours pass like minutes and all of a suddent, six or eight hours doesn't seem like such a long time any more. I used to count cards and liked playing blackjack. I can't stand it anymore - poker has ruined it for me.

[EWillers]

[ QUOTE ]
And I think that in the relatively near future, the legal issue of internet gambling in this country will be addressed. The ultimate solution is predictable. The government cannot stop it, so they will attempt to regulate it and to tax it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just like was done with (currently) illicit drugs and prostituion?

I'm not sure what the rationale is for our (US) government when it comes to "allowing" what some may consider to be sinful behaviour. One thing I believe is certain, I can find no rationale.

I think there is a decent chance that some of the more Puritanical forces at work in the US goverment may win out ultimately and the overt legalisation of on-line gaming in the US may have to wait until after passage of the "Patriotic Crack Revitialisation Act".