|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Arbs
Can someone explain how to find an arb and calculate ev
|
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
You sell a Eagles to win SB at 1-1 odds.
You buy an Eagles to win SB at 3-1 odds. You put $100 of action on each. Max loss = zero, Max win = $200. EV % chance PHL wins times $200. So if 10% your EV is $20. simple. Naj |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.
In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend: $3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420 $3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057 If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
Yeah, sorry bout that, my example was a little rushed as I tried to make it more simple. Clearly you would want to book the $100 pure profit regardless.
Damn cutting back on caffeine is killin me. Naj |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
No worries. There are few topics that I am smart enough to contribute on here, but how to arb money risk-free and clear bonuses appeals to my limit ring game grinder's mind. When I first got talked into trying it, I really thought it seemed too good to be true or that it would take hours and hours to find a good play. It turns out to be a lot easier than I thought it would be.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
How many books to you guys have accounts with in order to effectively scalp? I'm very intrigued by this, and having just gotten my bonus, I have some money to throw into a few more accounts at various books to make it happen.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
[ QUOTE ]
In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins. In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend: $3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420 $3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057 If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year. [/ QUOTE ] 1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%. [/ QUOTE ] Pesky compound interest. Thanks! |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Arbs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%. [/ QUOTE ] Pesky compound interest. Thanks! [/ QUOTE ] I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much. |
|
|