10/20 not much of a hand against LAG

DrSavage · #1 09-15-2005, 09:03 PM

I hate hands like this. Villain is something like 77/16/1.1 here. I'm still undecided about the turn bet, comments on river would be appreciated too.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

joker122 · #2 09-15-2005, 09:09 PM

it sucks making this call but i think you'll pick off a bluff 1 in 7 times.

obsidian · #3 09-15-2005, 09:15 PM

Picking off a flush draw bluff is enough to make this moderately profitable I believe.

ArturiusX · #4 09-15-2005, 09:17 PM

I like. Jack looks like a good for him to bluff at.

DrSavage · #5 09-15-2005, 09:23 PM

What do you guys think about turn bet ? It would suck to get checkraised here with a hand with certain showdown value and picked up flush draw. On the other hand, he would definitely at least call a bet with a flush draw, open ender or a gutushot. I'm really torn here.

dave44 · #6 09-16-2005, 11:40 AM

I would like the turn bet a lot more if it was the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], rather than the 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. On the flop, he most likely has a pair, a straight draw, or a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw. The turn gives straight draws either the straight or a pair, so now you're only getting value out of flush draws and really loose flop calls on your turn bet. I'd rather check behind and call every river but a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that doesn't improve me- maybe folding to Q's and 8's as well.

DrSavage · #7 09-16-2005, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, he most likely has a pair, a straight draw, or a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure his range is way wider here.

DMBFan23 · #8 09-16-2005, 12:27 PM

Dr. Savage,

I don't check ALL hands with outs anymore (I got obsessed with it for a while), I tend to bet the ones with more showdown value, and check the ones where I don't care if I have to fold the river. I don't know where this one falls on the scale, but I don't hate a turn bet at all, and it might be preferable.

I am undecided on the river.

spamuell · #9 09-16-2005, 01:29 PM

I don't check ALL hands with outs anymore (I got obsessed with it for a while), I tend to bet the ones with more showdown value, and check the ones where I don't care if I have to fold the river.

Wow this seems completely backwards to me. Surely you want to check the ones where you have showdown value because it induces a bluff so often whereas bet the ones where if you get checkraised, it's much more likely you're behind so folding the river is much more likely to be correct?

DMBFan23 · #10 09-16-2005, 03:41 PM

that is a good point. kind of two things at work here. I'll use a board of Qs 6s 2d, and JTs versus AKs as an example:

if he is capable of folding the turn but also capable of bluffing the river (AKA a solid player), then I would be more inclined to bet the JTs I think, to let him fold if thats what he wants to do, and I don't care if I get raised even on a semibluff as I can fold the river UI with no shame. with the AKs I can induce a bluff, so if I had to pick one to check it'd be that one.

against a player who will surely call the turn, either

a) he will not bluff the river: in that case, I would want to bet the AKs and check the JTs, because I can protect the AK against what is probably a fairly wide calling range on the flop, and I can set up a free showdown. I would still consider checking the AKs on boards where it's way more likely that he's hit, as I'll still get my free showdown versus this opponent often enough. but if I had to bet one it would be AK, to set up the free showdown in the cases I'm still ahead. with JTs, I can check and fold UI with absolute certainty my hand is beaten.

b) he will bluff the river sometimes. I'm less likely to bet my AK in this situation, because the free showdown aspect is gone, but I still get some protection if he's a loosey. if I have enough of a bead on him to make the right amount of UI river calls, then I like betting more. wth the JTs in this case, I really am not protecting anything, and gotta check it because I can't call the river UI, so betting the turn doesnt really get me much.

someone tell me if this is way off