Pop quiz

[elindauer]

Here's a simple test of your poker logic. This kind of thing happens all the time. Do you know the answer?


You have bottom pair and you are facing a bet on the turn in a heads up pot. You think you are most likely behind, but of course you aren't sure.

You decide it'll probably take 2 pair to win. The pot is just big enough that, with your implied odds, you can barely call if you plan to fold unimproved. You are getting the proper odds to draw, but just barely.

You are just getting ready to call when you realize that you have some doubt about whether or not you are losing. You think there's an outside chance your opponent is bluffing. If you call the turn, you decide that you're going to be forced to call a river bet unimproved.

What's your action?

[KidPokerX]

can i raise?

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
can i raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see this listed as an option? Assume this player 3-bets everything he bets on the turn.

-Eric

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
can i raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see this listed as an option? Assume this player 3-bets everything he bets on the turn.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case you call down for tilt equity.
If you are beat, you can quietly muck, but if you win, you get to show the whole table you called down with bottom pair.

[TightIsRight]

You fold. Your effective odds have been reduced by the fact that you will be calling two big bets, not one. Now, you are putting in two big bets, but your chances of winning have only gone up slightly by what you’ve just “realized” about the slight possibility that he’s bluffing.

For example: While before you made this realization you were putting in one bet with about a 11% chance of winning, now you’re putting in two bets with (say) an 16% chance of winning. This slight increase of times you take down the pot does not make up for putting in another bet in a heads-up situation.

I’m pretty sure that this is right, but could be more clearly explained by someone else.

[TightIsRight]

Also, when he’s bluffing, you’re not going to collect 2 bets on the end.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I’m pretty sure that this is right, but could be more clearly explained by someone else.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's wrong...

[aK13]

Stop changing your read in the middle of a hand.

Where's the raise button?
Obvious raise.

[TightIsRight]

[ QUOTE ]
Where's the raise button?
Obvious raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please elaborate on the reasons why this is obvious?