Party 15/30 - AJs

Sully · #1 06-14-2004, 10:26 AM

I'm curious as to what you think about my play on this hand. After over 7,000 hands, AJs has been a loser for me, which probably means I take it too far when I miss, knowing me.

I don't really think that is the case on this hand, but I'm curious what you think about the play here, especially my bet on the turn. I could have taken a free card, but I felt I had a good chance to win the pot right there, and if I was called, I likely had 14 outs (correct?). Also, your thoguhts on the river bet...too aggressive to hope your up against a missed draw and take another shot at the pot, or is this the time to check and go home?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.66 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (6.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (8.83 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10.83 BB
Main Pot: 10.83 BB, between BB and Hero. > Pot won by BB (10.83 BB).

Results in white below: 
BB shows Jd Jc (one pair, jacks).
Hero shows As Js (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins 10.83 BB.

astroglide · #2 06-14-2004, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After over 7,000 hands, AJs has been a loser for me, which probably means I take it too far when I miss, knowing me.

[/ QUOTE ]

have you looked at how many times you've actually been dealt AJs in this period of time? over 7000 hands you should have gotten it like 20 times. do you believe that is a large enough sample size to draw any kind of a conclusion?

Sully · #3 06-14-2004, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
have you looked at how many times you've actually been dealt AJs in this period of time? over 7000 hands you should have gotten it like 20 times. do you believe that is a large enough sample size to draw any kind of a conclusion?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right about this...I've had AJs about 24 times, with a win % of just under 30%..certainly need a much larger sample size to draw anything meaningful, but it is definitely the type of hand I want to address, because it could certainly help my play with similar hands.

DcifrThs · #4 06-14-2004, 12:38 PM

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I've had AJs about 24 times, with a win % of just under 30%...

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HOLY ****. i really misread your post...i thought you had 7000 AJs hands dealt to you..

24!?!?!? come back when you have a few orders of magnitude more than that lol.

-Barron

Sully · #5 06-14-2004, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]

HOLY ****. i really misread your post...i thought you had 7000 AJs hands dealt to you..

24!?!?!? come back when you have a few orders of magnitude more than that lol.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Barron;

It might take me a few years for that...I'm still keeping the day job for now.

Thanks for the input. I always give early raises a lot of respect, but this is the type of hand I usually stay in with. Looks like it's time to rethink that. I currently voluntarily put money in the pot around 18% - hard to believe that I'm playing too loose...maybe I just need to rethink my starting selection.

DcifrThs · #6 06-14-2004, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hard to believe that I'm playing too loose...maybe I just need to rethink my starting selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

you MAY be playing too LOOSE in some spots and too TIGHT in others....i.e. reraising w/ ajs vs. UTG+1 raise= too loose.

folding J8s on the button after 4 limpers= too tight. if you forsake the former for the latter then you're in good shape (fold AJs, call with J8s in those positions as given)

also, i see sooooooo many people concentrating on preflop hand selection...the turn is where the money is.

-Barron

Schneids · #7 06-20-2004, 04:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After over 7,000 hands, AJs has been a loser for me, which probably means I take it too far when I miss, knowing me.

[/ QUOTE ]

have you looked at how many times you've actually been dealt AJs in this period of time? over 7000 hands you should have gotten it like 20 times. do you believe that is a large enough sample size to draw any kind of a conclusion?

[/ QUOTE ]

Astro, I'm wondering how many you'd consider to be statistically significant? I'm up to 143,000 hands in my PT Database, and with AQs at 449 times AQs is only +.01BB/hand.

Leak in my game or still too small to mean anything?

mplspoker · #8 06-20-2004, 04:19 AM

I think that the reason you guys aren't making any money on AJs and AQs is that you are calling raises from EP and three betting into trap hands a lot....

Schneids · #9 06-20-2004, 04:35 AM

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I think that the reason you guys aren't making any money on AJs and AQs is that you are calling raises from EP and three betting into trap hands a lot....

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the feedback but I'm not really looking for any suggestions on how to play the hand. I just want to know the likelihood the stats can still be an aberration.

Additionally, a majority of those hands have occured shorthanded, so I would guess pushing two far with ace-high against opponents I shouldn't be pushing against is a more likely factor than simply playing the hand, since I can remember like twice ever that I've folded AQs PF in short handed (but if this were true than I would question why AJs, AKs, AKo, or AQo are nowhere near where AQs is...hence my question about whether this could still be an aberration).

mplspoker · #10 06-20-2004, 06:00 AM

sorry didn't know about most hands occuring in short handed situations, was thinking full ring game...