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#1
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What to do with a scary river.
<font color="blue">I'm never quite sure what to do with these hands. Here's the situation: the table's an aquarium.
<font color="red">UTG</font> is LAP with 41% VPIP, 9% PFR and AvgAGG of about 1.6. <font color="red">UTG+1</font> is SLPA with 20% VPIP, 4% PFR, and AvgAGG 3.62, mostly on the river (6).</font> Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: Pokey is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls. <font color="blue">Standard; this is not a table for finesse.</font> Flop: (11 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds. <font color="blue">My pot. Bet is for value</font> Turn: (7 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls. <font color="blue">I said MY POT, dammit. Bet is for value.</font> River: (10 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets.... Final Pot: 16 BB <font color="blue">Is this a "check-behind" situation, or a "bet for value" situation? Am I seeing monsters under the bed if I tremble a bit as I bet this? Should I be insta-betting, no worries? Should I be taking the free showdown? What's the story? |
#2
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
I think worse hands will call here.
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#3
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
You really have to bet this. You have a very strong hand, and it will be called by worse hands, A LOT.
Sadly, you will probably have to pay off a checkraise (especially from the postflop LAG) |
#4
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
[ QUOTE ]
You really have to bet this. You have a very strong hand, and it will be called by worse hands, A LOT. Sadly, you will probably have to pay off a checkraise (especially from the postflop LAG) [/ QUOTE ] Why? (Okay, if this seals the case that I'm a nit, fine.) |
#5
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
I don't know if there's a single person I'd ever fold to a check/raise on this river in this hand. If there is, I haven't played against him yet.
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#6
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if there's a single person I'd ever fold to a check/raise on this river in this hand. If there is, I haven't played against him yet. [/ QUOTE ] I think that a river check/raise here, especially if i comes from UTG+1 after UTG calls, says "I can beat AK." Plus, that card completed two draws. I'm not saying that in the heat of the moment I'd fold, but this is our opportunity to understand situations like this one. |
#7
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
Actually I think Im with the nit on this one.
Rolf...way to screw me up. Knocka too. I dunno, I think I feel a good ole CR coming on. |
#8
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
[ QUOTE ]
Why? (Okay, if this seals the case that I'm a nit, fine.) [/ QUOTE ] If it UTG C/Rs then I would probably fold if I'd played a decent number of hands with him, and if he seems passive/non-tricky. UTG+1 had a river aggro factor of 6, and there is no way Im laying down to that. |
#9
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 had a river aggro factor of 6, and there is no way Im laying down to that. [/ QUOTE ] I really doubt that Pokey has enough hands on UTG+1 to suggest that the river AG factor is statistically very meaningful. Nonetheless, I bet and payoff a checkraise every time. |
#10
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Re: What to do with a scary river.
bet the river..being afraid of the flush and checking behind constantly in situations like this will hurt your winrate
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