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#1
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BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
opponent is comepletely unknown and seems typical over about 10 hands.
Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (4 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls. Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls. Turn: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls. River: (11 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks. Final Pot: 11 BB im calling a river bet, obviously. |
#2
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
preflop: without a read, I'm probably folding this without a read on the opponent. I do not play 20/40 so cannot comment on players there, but unless you have a good deal of fold equity I don't like it OOP. After the 3bet, I don't see what the benefit of the cap is - at best you're putting in money 50/50 without position.
Flop - a good probabilty that this hasn't hit him, however he is going to call with overcards. Turn - again a good chance you are still best here, however without a read his raise makes me fell uncomforatable but there's still a good enough chance that he's getting agro with overs to call down. Is the 3bet meant to try and fold a better hand, or for value? This is a play that I'd never make (judging by what I have seen from your past posts, you are a far better player than I), however I'd be interested in your reasoning here. river - see above. |
#3
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
I would just call the preflop 3 bet and check/rase the flop.
The cap isn't horrible, just not optimal. If I cap, the flop is standard. Turn I dont like. When he raises, just call. Don't give him an opportunity to punish you worse if he has a made hand. He doesn't fold anything that beats you to the 3 bet, or any draw. Call turn and donk bet river. Or call turn and check/call river. Same amount of bets with less risk me thinks. -blake |
#4
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
I was with you till the turn 3bet...
Its something I would never do, maybe just cuz I am a pussy. I agree he can have a pretty wide range here, but I just feel like this is spewing. I suck at pokerstove, can someone tell us how we are doing vs a rang of AK/AQ, any PP (other than 44,66,77) Any 2 broadway hearts, Q9,K9,A9,Q8,K8,A8, JTo,JTs. Am I missing anything or would you agree this is probably his range flawless vic? |
#5
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
[ QUOTE ]
I was with you till the turn 3bet... Its something I would never do, maybe just cuz I am a pussy. I agree he can have a pretty wide range here, but I just feel like this is spewing. I suck at pokerstove, can someone tell us how we are doing vs a rang of AK/AQ, any PP (other than 44,66,77) Any 2 broadway hearts, Q9,K9,A9,Q8,K8,A8, JTo,JTs. Am I missing anything or would you agree this is probably his range flawless vic? [/ QUOTE ]basically, based on his timing and the board texture, i felt it was very likely that turn card helped him... look at all those draws (you left out any hand that contains a 7 or 6)... i did think there may have made a pair of 8s, but i didnt think he could punish me any further with that hand. |
#6
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
so are you folding to a turn cap then? again your reasoning makes sense, but he's probably betting the river if he misses his draw, so i don't know that this is much better than just calling down.
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#7
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
[ QUOTE ]
so are you folding to a turn cap then? [/ QUOTE ] probably not. [ QUOTE ] i don't know that this is much better than just calling down. [/ QUOTE ] - i think he will take the showdown/give up often. - he still may bluff the riv w/ JT netting me four bets. - metagame. |
#8
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I was with you till the turn 3bet... Its something I would never do, maybe just cuz I am a pussy. I agree he can have a pretty wide range here, but I just feel like this is spewing. I suck at pokerstove, can someone tell us how we are doing vs a rang of AK/AQ, any PP (other than 44,66,77) Any 2 broadway hearts, Q9,K9,A9,Q8,K8,A8, JTo,JTs. Am I missing anything or would you agree this is probably his range flawless vic? [/ QUOTE ]basically, based on his timing and the board texture, i felt it was very likely that turn card helped him... look at all those draws (you left out any hand that contains a 7 or 6)... i did think there may have made a pair of 8s, but i didnt think he could punish me any further with that hand. [/ QUOTE ] I left out hands with at 7 or 6 cuz I dont see him 3betting with many of those, nor raising the turn with them Maaaybe like Th7h but I think thats a stretch. Going by my original range...I came up with 52 hands we are ahead of, and 42 we are behind. Which means on the turn we are winning about 55% of the time. But of the times he is behind, he will improve an average of about 20%, and of the times we are behind, we only improve about 4%, and we dont have the 3H, so we could improve and still lose. Unless his range is signifigantly different than what I have given him (maybe due to bet timing?), or unless this move has huge metagame effects, I dont see how it can possibly be +EV given the calculations I just did. |
#9
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
he will almost never have an overpair and he will have TP evn less.
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#10
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Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.
[ QUOTE ]
he will almost never have an overpair and he will have TP evn less. [/ QUOTE ] Because he would raise the flop with those? Hoping you will go off for multiple bets at some point? I thought about that and I think I agree. Fastplaying is the new slowplaying and slow playing is now a weak line. |
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