Asteroid flies under satellites. Big asteroid 1/60 odds to hit 2029

[wacki]

This asteroid, if it hit the earth at a 90 degree angle, would be about twice as powerfull as Hiroshima.

Astronomers spotted an asteroid this week AFTER it had flown past Earth on a course that took it so close to the planet it was below the orbits of some satellites.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...se_041222.html

This one will explode with a force of 1,900 Megatons of TNT.
Odds of it hitting in April 13, 2029? 1/60. Have a nice day!

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html

Not to alarm people further, but April 13, 2029 is also Friday the 13th! We're doomed!!!!

I'll be on my roof with a 6 pack of beer.

[wacki]

NASA plot of the 1,900 megaton beast.

[CCx]

Hmmmm, it said 1-in-300 chance in this CNN article from yesterday, but I guess they flubbed that one..

uh oh we're so screwed

if i happen to live that long, i'll be ready to go out with a bang [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[wacki]

Ya, CNN got it wrong. It was 1/233, but then NASA took more precise measurements. It then went down to 1/60. They still have more measurements to take so it could go either way.

[Michael Davis]

1/60 odds on that is pretty insane, probably worth taking measures to blow it up or something. I really know nothing about this stuff but a 1/60 shot is very scary if accurate.

-Michael

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
1/60 odds on that is pretty insane, probably worth taking measures to blow it up or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understatement of the year. We actually can blow up an asteroid. Right now the technology to do so is still 30 years away. I hope NASA, and Congress, gets their butts in gear.

[Duke]

[ QUOTE ]
We actually can blow up an asteroid. Right now the technology to do so is still 30 years away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this mean that we can't?

Also, though they aren't sure if it'll hit or not, they should have an idea where it would hit if it did. If NASA isn't going nuts about it it's probably going to hit Africa or something.

EDIT: I would assume that the velocity isn't uncertain, only the trajectory.

~D

[Dr. Strangelove]

I was under the impression that the Soviet Union detonated multiple 50-100 megaton devices in the atmosphere. Given that, I don't see how 1900 megatons is so terrible. It's not like it would wipe out humanity.

[Cerril]

That's pretty much what I got from it too

[ QUOTE ]
This asteroid, if it hit the earth at a 90 degree angle, would be about twice as powerfull as Hiroshima.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we're looking at a worst case of something not too bad on a global scale. Granted it would be devastating for anyone who happened to be there but chances are really good it'd smack into the water too far out to affect anyone, and even if it smacked right into LA, the people in New York wouldn't be too distraught.

Still, quite creepy.

[wacki]

Reread the post. The "2x Hiroshima" asteroid is only 15 feet across. The reason it is so powerfull is because it travels at about 17 miles per SECOND. The one that has a 1/60 chance of hitting us is about 1/2 a mile across. Hiroshima was about 20,000 tons of TNT. The big asteroid is equal to about 1,900,000,0000 tons of TNT. Do you understand?