Free Will Philosophy Problem

[edthayer]

My philosophy teacher posed this problem to the class. I've been thinking about it a lot, and I'm fairly convinced I have the correct answer. I want to hear what you guys think about it.

Box #1 is guaranteed to contain $1000 no matter what. Box #2 either contains one million dollars, or it contains nothing. You can either 1) take both boxes, or 2) take only Box #2.

Seems simple enough right now, but there's a story behind Box #2. A brilliant alien psychologist has been studying your every behavior since birth. This hypothetical alien knows you better than you know yourself, and can predict your actions as accurately as possible. This alien is in charge of deciding whether to put the million in Box #2 or not. If the alien predicts you will chose both boxes, he will put nothing in Box #2. If the alien predicts that you chose ONLY Box #2, he will put a million dollars in it.

Like I said, I've pretty much convinced myself of the answer. I'd be interested to hear various arguments on both sides though, because I might end up having to defend myself later in class.

[Pocket Trips]

[ QUOTE ]
My philosophy teacher posed this problem to the class. I've been thinking about it a lot, and I'm fairly convinced I have the correct answer. I want to hear what you guys think about it.

Box #1 is guaranteed to contain $1000 no matter what. Box #2 either contains one million dollars, or it contains nothing. You can either 1) take both boxes, or 2) take only Box #2.

Seems simple enough right now, but there's a story behind Box #2. A brilliant alien psychologist has been studying your every behavior since birth. This hypothetical alien knows you better than you know yourself, and can predict your actions as accurately as possible. This alien is in charge of deciding whether to put the million in Box #2 or not. If the alien predicts you will chose both boxes, he will put nothing in Box #2. If the alien predicts that you chose ONLY Box #2, he will put a million dollars in it.

Like I said, I've pretty much convinced myself of the answer. I'd be interested to hear various arguments on both sides though, because I might end up having to defend myself later in class.

[/ QUOTE ]

My brain hurts

[gasgod]

Since the amount in each box cannot change, take both.

If the second box is empty, there was nothing you could do about it. At least you will have $1000 if you take both. Deposit it all in Party Poker, and send me half of it for giving you this advice.

GG

[SittingBull]

how well the psychologist can predict MY behavior.
I must change gears. That is,I would have to drastically change my behavior pattern of a lifetime. There is an extremely small chance of my doing so UNLESS I'm aware of the psychologist's experiment and his intentions. Given that I will lose 1000.00 if box2 is empty,I won't lose sleep over it.. However,a 50% chance of winning a million and NOT taking it will cause me to lose some sleep. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] So , if I'm NOT aware of the Alien'experiments and intention,I would select BOX2. But I'm speaking for myself. I do not know what anyone else would do. HOWEVER, my GUESS is that MOST of them would do the same as I.
SittingBull

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
how well the psychologist can predict MY behavior.

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This is the flaw. The psychologist has already predicted your behaviour. You cannot change that prediction; it is history. Box 2 may or may not have anything in it. That's beyond your control. Given that, why pass up on a free $1000?


GG

[Demana]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how well the psychologist can predict MY behavior.

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This is the flaw. The psychologist has already predicted your behaviour. You cannot change that prediction; it is history. Box 2 may or may not have anything in it. That's beyond your control. Given that, why pass up on a free $1000?


GG

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I agree. If the alien predictor's actions were made before you could act, then there is absolutely no reason not to always take both boxes because your choice doesn't influence whether or not the money is in box #2. It either already is or already isn't and there is nothing you can do about it.

[PairTheBoard]

First, do you accept the assumption that the alien CAN predict your choice with 100% accuracy?

Do you say yes? If so call this axiom 1.

Now, it's true that what's in the box is in the box regardless of your choice. So you choose both boxes. By axiom 1 this was predicted so no million dollars. You play again. Again you choose both boxes. Again by axiom 1 no million. You do this 5 or 10 times. Each time no million. Finally you think what the hell, let's see what happens if I just choose box 2. Viola. By Axom 1 you are now a millionaire. What do you do next? Stubornly go back to your original best reasoning?

Meanwhile your buddy who got the same deal was choosing Box 2 each time and by Axiom 1 is now a multimillionaire.

PairTheBoard

[TStoneMBD]

no but see, i argue that this logic is flawed because your logic is that youre passing up on a free $1000 on a decision that doesnt matter either way. the alien knows you will think this and therefore will not give you the million.

however, if you think like me, that you are willing to pass up on the free $1000 because your logic is that the alien thinks you will think that you are more likely to get the million if you only choose the million dollar box, then he will think you will only take the million dollar box and you will get paid.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
no but see, i argue that this logic is flawed because your logic is that youre passing up on a free $1000 on a decision that doesnt matter either way. the alien knows you will think this and therefore will not give you the million.

however, if you think like me, that you are willing to pass up on the free $1000 because your logic is that the alien thinks you will think that you are more likely to get the million if you only choose the million dollar box, then he will think you will only take the million dollar box and you will get paid.

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Why are you using future tense? The alien has made (Note: past tense) his decision. It's wishful thinking to imagine that you can influence the course of events in the past.

GG

[Demana]

They will never be able to predict your actions 100% of the time, so it really doesn't matter.

You could out think yourself and go against your expected behavior, only to have the alien make a mistake in guessing your expected behavior and you will be screwed either way.

In the end, you're better off taking both boxes because you will always get something, regardless of any mistakes made.