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#1
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Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands?
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#2
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
Probability of being dealt AA: C(4,2) / C(52,2) = 0.004525
Probability of not being dealt AA: 1 - 0.004525 = 0.995475 Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%. |
#3
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
Thank you!
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#4
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%. [/ QUOTE ] just for interest, not hitting it for 500 hands is 11%..... and i think i'm on that run right now.... not sure what the point of my comment is. but thanks for posting. |
#5
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
does anybody know what the probability is of getting beaten 4 times in a row with AA? its vs. QQ, AJ, TT+QJs, and TT+Q4o [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#6
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%. [/ QUOTE ] Now, unless I'm wrong, the odds against getting AA twice in a row is (1/221)^2 = .0000204 or .00204%. The reason I'm getting at this is that stuff like this happens fairly regularly given the number of hands most of us play. So, a streak of 1500 hands without AA isn't really that noteworthy. |
#7
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands? [/ QUOTE ] God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often. |
#8
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands? [/ QUOTE ] God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often. [/ QUOTE ] Something about springy claws of variance.... |
#9
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands? [/ QUOTE ] God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often. [/ QUOTE ] If God truly hated his friend the time he finally got AA he would lose to a fish holding 72 offsuit. |
#10
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Re: Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands
It happened to me once about a month or so ago. It was about 1700 hands in a row w/o AA. I finally got it and lost my stack. Be careful what you wish for as they say.
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