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#1
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AJo from the SB ($22s)
Do you guys think Im ahead of his range???
#Game No : 3146138896 ***** Hand History for Game 3146138896 ***** NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:17995125 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Sunday, December 04, 21:24:04 EDT 2005 Table Table 67806 (Real Money) Seat 7 is the button Total number of players : 7 Seat 1: malanka ( $1370 ) Seat 2: lilslick1122 ( $745 ) Seat 4: andrewjem ( $1355 ) Seat 5: supercool841 ( $610 ) Seat 7: Cplus080 ( $960 ) Seat 8: castanza_g ( $1000 ) Seat 10: pauldelvista ( $1960 ) Trny:17995125 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to castanza_g [ Jh Ah ] malanka folds. lilslick1122 folds. andrewjem folds. supercool841 is all-In [610] Cplus080 folds. castanza_g is all-In [950] |
#2
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
Very close IMO...marginal at best. Without a read, at this stage of the game, I don't see a compelling reason to take the gamble. |
#3
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
Yay! SNGPT!!! Dunno if I'm using it correctly. Someone want to confirm?
Your hand vs. a ... tight range (66+, ATs+, AJo+): -0.6% average range (44+, A7s, A9o, KJs+): +0.8% loose range (22+, A2s+, A3o, KTs+): +2.2% maniacal range (22+, A2+, K2+, Q2s+): +3.0% From his perspective: even at a loose calling range, he can push 32o and be +cEV (+0.4%). Am I wrong? <---------- so happy about getting SNGPT |
#4
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
[ QUOTE ]
Yay! SNGPT!!! Dunno if I'm using it correctly. Someone want to confirm? Your hand vs. a ... tight range (66+, ATs+, AJo+): -0.6% average range (44+, A7s, A9o, KJs+): +0.8% loose range (22+, A2s+, A3o, KTs+): +2.2% maniacal range (22+, A2+, K2+, Q2s+): +3.0% From his perspective: even at a loose calling range, he can push 32o and be +cEV (+0.4%). Am I wrong? <---------- so happy about getting SNGPT [/ QUOTE ] With Hero in the SB and villain in the CO, I get -1.4%, 0%, +1.5%, and +2.2%. As for the call, I think it's probably marginal at best. Did villain push his SB into the medium stack on his left last time (that's likely to be way more +EV for him than most pushes from here into the big stack's BB). Moreover, pushing into a big stack's BB when big stack has you covered by better than 3x normally requires a real hand (of course, that's a reason to do it with trash if you're brave and think big stack is too weak...). As a general rule, I think villain's hand is probably closer to the SNGPT tight range than the average one here, making it a fold (and that's without accounting for the chances of BB waking up with a hand). |
#5
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
It's AJs not AJo? I think the call is great against the right opponents, and not so good against the wrong ones.
Really that simple.. |
#6
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
[ QUOTE ]
It's AJs not AJo? [/ QUOTE ] My bad [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] |
#7
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
in general, i would like to think you are ahead of his range, i make this move without a reason not to.
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#8
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
well AQo is an instacall here and AJs isnt too far behind. looks like a call to me. AJo is closer though
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#9
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
The nash eq here is ~29/17. So he should be pushing 29% of the time and you should be calling 17% of the time. Since he is unknown it is best to just use ideal strategy. Sure he might be pushing top 10%, but he might be pushing top 40%. You would expect to make about 2.2% of the pool by calling with AJs if he plays optimally.
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#10
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Re: AJo from the SB ($22s)
how did u get 29 17?
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