Stepping in it w/ Axs

uuDevil · #1 01-22-2005, 07:17 PM

UTG+2, MP1, and BB are all very aggressive. MP1 is tight pf (17% VP$IP) but raises every hand he plays. Comments?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, BB raises, Hero calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (9 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, SB folds.

River: (11 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

bigmac366 · #2 01-22-2005, 07:26 PM

i think you played it fine, as long as you plan to fold the flop if raised. looks like you got rivered by a set of kings though. tough luck

Shillx · #3 01-22-2005, 07:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think you played it fine, as long as you plan to fold the flop if raised. looks like you got rivered by a set of kings though. tough luck

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are we folding to a flop raise? Getting almost 20:1 on our call, this sounds like a horrible plan.

Brad

shadow29 · #4 01-22-2005, 07:28 PM

I fold this pf at 1/2. At .5/1 I play it.

Marquis · #5 01-22-2005, 07:32 PM

I don't think there's anything he calls your river bet with that you beat, so check-calling seems better.

Redd · #6 01-22-2005, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's anything he calls your river bet with that you beat, so check-calling seems better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like he'd call queens or jacks if he came this far with them, but there's many more winning hands that he'll call with. Enough that check-calling still seems valid. Anyone know the mathematical justification for the river bet?

Shillx · #7 01-22-2005, 08:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's anything he calls your river bet with that you beat, so check-calling seems better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like he'd call queens or jacks if he came this far with them, but there's many more winning hands that he'll call with. Enough that check-calling still seems valid. Anyone know the mathematical justification for the river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Question #1: What will this guy limp-reraise with? You say that he will raise almost anything he plays preflop. Why would he limp re-raise KK?

From his play, I can think of 3 possible hands. KK, QQ and JJ. AA, TT and AK probably would have done something earlier in the hand.

There are 3 combinations of KK. There are 6 of both QQ and JJ. Therefore, it is about 4:1 that you have him beat on the river. This is an easy river bet IMO.

Brad

Marquis · #8 01-22-2005, 08:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Question #1: What will this guy limp-reraise with? You say that he will raise almost anything he plays preflop. Why would he limp re-raise KK?

From his play, I can think of 3 possible hands. KK, QQ and JJ. AA, TT and AK probably would have done something earlier in the hand.

There are 3 combinations of KK. There are 6 of both QQ and JJ. Therefore, it is about 4:1 that you have him beat on the river. This is an easy river bet IMO.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Brad, you keep me coming back. Are you able to analyze like that on-the-fly?

That said, if I were playing this hand, my instinct would have been to bet that river having been shown no aggression after the flop to that point. It was only after really thinking hard about it that I came up with the bad advice I posted earlier [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

uuDevil · #9 01-22-2005, 08:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Question #1: What will this guy limp-reraise with? You say that he will raise almost anything he plays preflop. Why would he limp re-raise KK?

From his play, I can think of 3 possible hands. KK, QQ and JJ. AA, TT and AK probably would have done something earlier in the hand.

There are 3 combinations of KK. There are 6 of both QQ and JJ. Therefore, it is about 4:1 that you have him beat on the river. This is an easy river bet IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
He raised EVERY hand he played, except this one, which he limp-reraised. As for why, I think he did not respect BB's raise and felt he had the best hand or one that played well multiway. Or maybe he just felt like it....

I like your analysis and I bet because I thought I would have been raised before the river if he had many of the hands that beat me.

Looking at it now: What hands would he have limped-reraised with AND call down with? Given that he shouldn't respect BB's raise, I guess TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AJs, KQ, QJs. On the end (given the board), I lose to a little more than half of these and a better hand won't fold. I'm thinking I should have check-called because getting raised would really suck (it did).

I also agree with those that said I should have folded pf.

Result: villain turns over TT for the flopped set.

DeathDonkey · #10 01-22-2005, 09:02 PM

Don't listen to them, they are wrong. This is an easy limp preflop. Jeez you people that fold this stuff must have like a VPIP of 12. I want to check the river too but Shillx made a good case for betting which I cannot argue with.

-DeathDonkey