Fold pocket Aces??

[Toopskees]

Home game NLHE tournament. Top 3 places pay. We are down to 4 players (bubble time). The situation:

Seat 1: (Loose passive player) -- 7500 chips
Seat 2: (Loose aggressive player) -- 5500 chips
Seat 7: Hero -- 9800 chips
Seat 9: Villain (has been playing erratically, and I had raised his SB consistently when I had the button) -- 5200 chips

Blinds are 500/1000

Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 2 posts 500 small blind.
I post 1000 big blind.
Villain is UTG and goes all in for 5200
Button folds
SB goes all in for 5500
I have pocket aces in the BB

Can anyone make a case for folding the aces in this spot?

[skiier04]

no

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If you even think about folding aces in this spot, stop playing poker immediately and take up checkers.

You have less than 10 big blinds in your stack, so the fact that you're chip leader is somewhat irrelevant. You still have to take chances.

[Exitonly]

The following describes the criteria to fold aces preflop.


when folding guarantees a huge increase in money
which is
- on/near the bubble in a satelite when you have an
above average stack.
- a big bubble in an MTT (like the jump from 4th to 3rd is
usually pretty big, same w/ 3rd to 2nd. This situation
happens when two stacks of same size go all in before you
like the hand you mentioned, but keep reading.


AND

- Calling, and losing would either knock you out, or
cripple you pretty badly.


The second part is not the case in your situation, because
even if you lose the hand, you'll just be where they were
when they made their move, AND you're still guaranteed your
spot. Also, by calling you're like 75% to move up TWO spots
here. Insta-call. Unless you play a lot of satelites you
most likely won't have to deal with any situations in which
you fold aces.


Period.

[Toopskees]

In fact, I did instacall. UTG turned over A2s and SB had AK. Feelin' alright, as I am an 82% favorite to bust them both. But the flop came J-2-2, and I was dead to runner-runner jacks.

It was only much later (in the middle of the night, actually) that I remembered the "Folding Aces" chapter in TPFAP and began second-guessing myself.

How much statistical difference does playing against 2 all-in opponents as opposed to only 1 make in this specific situation?

[MeanGreenTT]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, I did instacall. UTG turned over A2s and SB had AK. Feelin' alright, as I am an 82% favorite to bust them both. But the flop came J-2-2, and I was dead to runner-runner jacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold 'em pre-flop next time?

[skiier04]

If its a 50/30/20 payout structure I dont fold here unless I have less than 500 chips MAYBE

[prana]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, I did instacall. UTG turned over A2s and SB had AK. Feelin' alright, as I am an 82% favorite to bust them both. But the flop came J-2-2, and I was dead to runner-runner jacks.


[/ QUOTE ]

whoops i meant you shouldn't fold but if it came runner runner jack the board is j-2-2-j-j for jacks full of aces so you must not be right here or really got screwed by not knowing. Just woke up after a hellish night of drinking. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In fact, I did instacall. UTG turned over A2s and SB had AK. Feelin' alright, as I am an 82% favorite to bust them both. But the flop came J-2-2, and I was dead to runner-runner jacks.


[/ QUOTE ]

you shouldn't fold but if it came runner runner jack the board plays the j-2-2-j-j for jacks full of twos and it is a split pot so you must not be right here or really got screwed by not knowing

[/ QUOTE ]
If the board is J22JJ and you have AA, you have Jacks over Aces.

[cha59]

I think he might have meant runner runner jacks were his only out.