The only thing I did right was 3 bet pre-flop.

Net Warrior · #1 07-25-2005, 11:11 PM

It's about the 5th orbit and I haven’t played a hand yet! My cards have been ice cold and both these guy have been stealing from me regularly. Bu is a bit loose but plays ok after the flop. SB collcalls too much but is otherwise ok. The table has been fairly tight aggressive but it’s the only ten handed 10-20 game going at Pokerroom at the moment.

I’m in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Folded to Bu who raises. SB coldcalls, and I 3 bet. Bu caps, we both call. 3 players and 12sb’s to the Flop:

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I flop top 2 pair with no club on an all club board. I’m possibly way ahead, pretty far behind, or in great danger of falling behind. I have a great deal of trouble coming up with the right game plan in these situations. With this size pot, I’m not going to get a flush draw to fold. I decided that the pot was big enough so I when into check call mode but that sure seems wrong both then and now.

So, how do you maximize profit while minimizing loss in this spot?

SB checks, I checked, Bu bet and we both called. The Turn:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, I checked, Bu bet, we both called. The River:

9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checked, I checked, Bu bet, SB (apparently on a draw) folder, I called.

#2 07-25-2005, 11:22 PM

You gotta bet this flop.

You haven't played a hand in 5 orbits. A raise from the big blind here means absolutely any 2 cards, the call from the small blind only means a little better. If either of them have a single club, sure they are going to call, so make them pay.

Sure, the Button could have AA, or even 2 ragged clubs. Only if he raises you on the turn should you consider check and call mode, IMHO.

Heck, one of these guys could have Ace-rag and give you a ton of action before they realize they are beat.

Peter_rus · #3 07-25-2005, 11:24 PM

I would bet (try to cap or call 3-bet and raise turn without club) this flop, bet out-call any turn and check-call river if no A or Q comes and 4th club is here. Yes, i would call a river even if im raised on turn.

[ QUOTE ]
With this size pot, I’m not going to get a flush draw to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really can make draw to fold by bet-3bet flop if AK, Ax or KK or whatever else without club raise you.

oreogod · #4 08-12-2005, 04:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet (try to cap or call 3-bet and raise turn without club) this flop, bet out-call any turn and check-call river if no A or Q comes and 4th club is here. Yes, i would call a river even if im raised on turn.

[ QUOTE ]
With this size pot, I’m not going to get a flush draw to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really can make draw to fold by bet-3bet flop if AK, Ax or KK or whatever else without club raise you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im with Pete on this one.

tomahawk · #5 07-26-2005, 01:49 AM

atleast raise the damn river

Net Warrior · #6 07-26-2005, 06:42 AM

My hand was good. Bu mucked and I don't have PT so I didn't find out what he held.

Since the concensus is that I ought to bet somewhere, waiting for the turn to see if I've dodged a club seems like a plan. With only one card to come, a c/r would damage drawing hands the most. That ought to maximize profit in the long run. If I'm already behind, well those are the breaks, and I'd still have 4 outs to catch up.

Net Warrior · #7 07-26-2005, 02:39 PM

The chances of being dealt a 2 club hand are about 1 in 16 (I think). With two opponents that's about 1 in 8 times that one of them flopped a flush.

With two opponents, one of them will have a singe club every deal on average (I think). That hand will flush by the River about 1 in 3 times.

In total, 1/8 + 1/3 = about 1/2. So, top 2 pair wins about half the time. Additional top 2 pair has 4 outs which should easily counterbalance any set possibilities against you. This all means that you should get as much money into the pot vs. 2 opponents as possible.

Now I'm thinking that a flop c/r plus leading a non club turn and a non club river would have been the best line. Thanks for hanging in there while I think out loud. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

MrStretchie · #8 07-26-2005, 03:32 PM

Chances of a random two cards containing two clubs are much lower now that 3 of the 5 known cards are clubs. ~4.2% that either opponent flopped a flush.

The chances that at least one of them flopped a flush are about 1/12, not 1/8. Of course, either way, going into C/C mode on the flop is nuts.

ike · #9 07-26-2005, 03:42 PM

This math is all kinds of confused. Get a probability and statistics textbook, or if you're not that ambitious the intro to gambling math chapter in Getting the Best of It by Sklansky is a pretty good quick and dirty explanation of the stuff you absolutely must know.

Net Warrior · #10 07-26-2005, 07:46 PM

Ok, thanks for the heads up on my fuzzy math. So, the odds I'm ahead are even greater than I thought. I'm ordering Hold'em Odds Book by Mike Petriv as we speak. I'm actually shocked that I had a leak of this magnitude in my game. Good summation Carmine; thanks to all for the feedback.