Interesting 109 ITM hand

[Michael C.]

The following hand came up earlier today. The chip leader had about 7,400 in chips, I had 2,500, and the third player had 95. The blinds were 200-400, and the leader was pushing almost every hand, like she should. I was in the bb, and got 88. The chip leader pushed from the sb. Would you call here and go for the win, or fold and take the guaranteed second? Remember, she had been pushing with any two.

[Jman28]

I fold this easy.

Even if the leader is pushing any two, 88 isn't THAT strong v. any two.

Let the small stack go, and then play.

This can be figured out with ICM and PokerStove, but I'm playing right now.

-Jman28

[Michael C.]

I just checked with Poker Stove, and 88 is 70% vs. any two. And I truly do believe she would play any two (it turned out she had K3, a hand 88 is 71%). Given that information, is it mathamatically better to fold or call? I'd gain $100 if I folded, since I'm almost guaranteed to get second. If I call I'd be risking 2000 chips to get back 4,800, and would be a 70% favorite. So how would that work out? Thanks a lot!

[TylerD]

If he's really pushing with any two I think you have to call.

[EasilyFound]

The village idiot would like to ask a question. When you say "push" in your original post, do you mean she goes all-in on every hand, or simply that she is betting heavy (pushing the action so to speak) but not going all-in each time.

I read a lot of posts that talk about "pushing" and I want to be sure that I understand how you folks use that word.

Thanks.

[Michael C.]

Push= pushing in all of your chips.

[EasilyFound]

grazie

[Madd]

If you fold, you have 2100 left and (to make it simple) let's say you are guaranteed to become 2nd. So by folding you win
300 + 21% * (500 - 300) = 342 dollar.

If you call, you become 3rd in 30% of all cases and have a 50% shot for first in 70% of all cases (let's say again that you are guaranteed second if you win with 88):
30% * 200 + 70% * (50% * 500 + 50% * 300) = 340 dollar

These numbers are so close that it doesn't really make a difference mathematically.
However, if you fold and the small stack should survive a little bit longer you will probably lose even more than this BB when the big stack keeps on bullying. And, if you should happen to win your hand, the roles might be reversed as you have her covered. This makes it a clear call in my book.

[Michael C.]

Thanks Mad. That makes sense and I agree with that logic. If it's even 50-50, I'd rather go for first because you're right, she'd continue to eat me up.

[Degen]

easy call

Degen