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#1
12-07-2005, 08:09 PM
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What else am I doing with these aces??
The villains are different from the other hand. BB is relatively new, but has shown signs of aggression. This is about the third or fourth time he's donked into the preflop raiser on the flop.
Value bet the turn (and worry about the check-raise when it happens)? Check behind to try to induce a river bluff (betting the river if he checks to you again)? Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls. Turn: (5 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, Hero... 
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#5
12-08-2005, 01:56 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. [/ QUOTE ] 100%. If you are behind you have plenty of outs to catch up. Checking behind would be silly.
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#6
12-07-2005, 08:34 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
if you're going to pay off a river bet, i like betting the turn as a free showdown bet. if he raises, you can draw to your boat and fold the river UI. if not, check behind UI on river.
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#7
12-07-2005, 08:37 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
if you're going to pay off a river bet, i like betting the turn as a free showdown bet. if he raises, you can draw to your boat and fold the river UI. if not, check behind UI on river. [/ QUOTE ] So you like putting yourself in a position to lose two bets when behind and win one when you're ahead instead of putting yourself in position to lose one bet when you're behind and win one when you're ahead?
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#9
12-08-2005, 05:56 AM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
Easy bet. [/ QUOTE ] Am I missing something. We bet on the assumption he has no heart. If he doesn't have one yet he is about 4-1 not to get one on the river, either. So we're protecting a hand that's a pretty big favorite even if we do nothing. And a river heart is only a chop of a still smallish pot. If we are right that he doesn't have a heart a bet that causes villain to fold has about +0.5 BB EV. If he does have a heart then we'll assume it costs us 2 BB, but we've got the 10 outs to beat his flush so we'll get that 2 BB back a little better than 20 percent of the time. Still that's a bit more than -1 BB EV, though. (But hey, if he has a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or both then another [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will allow us to chop, I suppose that brings us back to just -1 for our EV.) That leaves the question of how often he has a heart. For a starting point in any two cards it's about 3 to 2 against having a specific suit. So against an opponent playing a random two the bet is already a loser. And clearly villain had a reason for deciding to contest this pot, which could have included a few things other than a heart but nowhere near enough to make me want to bet this turn.
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#10
12-08-2005, 06:41 AM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
if villain has a heart he most likely would not have bet into the PFR. He probably has a pair and wants the PFR to raise it to protect it from hearts.
But that's speculation. Who knows if the villain has a heart. But I'd say there's a >50% chance that the hero is still ahead. and even if he isn't it's not like villain is going to check raise a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . Bet it for value and check behind the river. also, the 3 to 2 against having a suit odds doesn't work because his hand isn't "random", there are only 9 hearts left.
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