Value Betting River

[KingOtter]

Of all the places that I'm having trouble in my game I'm wondering about my river play the most. Here's an example.. what should I do?

MP2 is very loose, and has been semi-aggressive in the hands I've seen, but that's been very very few. CO is semi-loose, and seems to like aces a lot, but pretty passive.


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls.

River: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

What should I do here?

[Redd]

I think if the forum set up an autoreply "Yes" to every post titled "Value-bet the river?" it wouldn't be too far off. These guys are both very loose, and there's a ton of things they'd call besides a flush draw. You gotta value-bet.

[bozlax]

Do you fold to a raise or call?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold to a raise or call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, first I'd swear because these situations always suck. As a disclaimer, I think that I pay off raises like this too often (but not often enough to make a value-bet -EV).

I'd usually call an MP2 raise whether it was cold-overcalled or not. LPs will cold-overcall with a pair here very often, and the semi-aggy could be getting donkey on the scare card.

With CO it depends on:
1) if MP2 calls,
2) how passive we're talking, and equally importantly,
3) how many hands the read is over.
If I haven't seen CO bluff/semibluff-raise in over a couple of hundred hands, I could probably find a fold if MP2 called before him. If it became HU I'd need a very solid read to fold it and would call the majority of the time. In all cases where my read isn't trustworthy I'd pay off.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold to a raise or call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, first I'd swear because these situations always suck. As a disclaimer, I think that I pay off raises like this too often (but not often enough to make a value-bet -EV).

I'd usually call an MP2 raise whether it was cold-overcalled or not. LPs will cold-overcall with a pair here very often, and the semi-aggy could be getting donkey on the scare card.

With CO it depends on:
1) if MP2 calls,
2) how passive we're talking, and equally importantly,
3) how many hands the read is over.
If I haven't seen CO bluff/semibluff-raise in over a couple of hundred hands, I could probably find a fold if MP2 called before him. If it became HU I'd need a very solid read to fold it and would call the majority of the time. In all cases where my read isn't trustworthy I'd pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reads aren't really trustworthy. Under 20 hands, although the hands that I've seen played correspond (MP2 has shown played rags, and CO has shown mostly Ax hands or broadway) to the reads. In other words MP2's range is {any two}.

River: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds,

What now?

[bozlax]

Call in a big pot against an unknown, possibly somewhat aggressive player. He may have A9s and be putting you on overcards. He may have 98s, and not really be thinking. I think you're good here 1 in 10.

[Highn]

Call, pot's too big to fold although I expect to lose here a lot.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
River: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds,

What now?

[/ QUOTE ]
Against an unknown, I'd look him up. He's probably got the ten or the slowplayed straight, but there are some donk bettors out there.

[bozlax]

Since nobody raised the flop, I don't see a flush, here, and since nobody raised the turn I don't see a ten or straight out, either. Bet and call a raise.

[closer2313]

bet fold if you are confident that they wont bluff raise the river.

Check/calling here is bad.