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#1
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NHL thought / bet for tonight
I've never made a bet on an NHL game even though I am (unfortunately for me in Chicago) an avid fan.
There was a blowup at the BlackHawk's practice yesterday by the captain after a tough, tough skate about not trying hard enough in games especially on defense mentally. He laid into the team for a while. Will the team respond by playing a better game tonight? I'm thinking of betting on the Hawks against Nashville at +101 or so. I also think the over 5.5 might be a good bet as well although it's -120 or so. Good move, bad move? I'm new to handicapping this type of stuff - thoughts? |
#2
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
it feels good when you make this kind of analysis and the bet wins, but i think psychology-based moves like this are just coinflips. ie it can be one factor in a strong play, but not sufficent as the only one.
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#3
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
I'm a big fan of psychology based bets because there's typically an edge thats not reflected in the line. The problem with this particular bet is two-fold, however. First, if this is widely known information, any effect on the blowup should theoretically be reflected in the line. Second, blowups like this can go both ways -- it could prove to hurt the team more than it helps. You, as a fan, would know better about the what effect it should have. If you feel that it will more than likely have a positive impact and you also think this has not been reflected in the line, there probably is value there.
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#4
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
It's at +105 now, I'm not sure that it will be a big enough factor. The game looks to be a coin flip anyway, doesn't look like there's much money to be made. Most of the games tonight don't look that great although Islanders/Devils might be worth a shot at the under.
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#5
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
Thanks for the replies all. I think I'm going to make a small bet just to "test" my theory out. It's known, but only in local chicago papers on the 5th page of the sports section (blackhawks are maybe the 5th most popular sports team in chicago).
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#6
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
The over might not be a bad play on this game. It looks like Nashville will be starting Mason in net. Only problem is you never know what you are going to get with Khabibulin. He will give up 5 goals one night then turn around and only give up one the next night. Still with the o/u at 5 1/2 it should be no problem. If Khabibulin has one of his bad nights Nashville could score 6 on their own.
Don't want to hijack your thread, but we might as well keep all the NHL stuff in one thread. I am looking at LA tonight. Anyone have any thoughts on this one? They have been playing well lately and at +131 vs Calgary there looks to be a nice overlay. I have the game as basically a coin flip. Thoughts? TheRake |
#7
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
Yeah, personally I don't see the Kings beating the Flames. The Flames will be upset over the loss to the Oil and will be ready for this one. At home with Kipper in goal...I'd take the Flames.
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#8
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring.
There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing. |
#9
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
[ QUOTE ]
No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring. There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing. [/ QUOTE ] That I agree with. That's why I'm choosing NO PLAY for this one. |
#10
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Re: NHL thought / bet for tonight
[ QUOTE ]
No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring. There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing. [/ QUOTE ] Not to be a homer, but the line is probably pretty close to true line. The flames and Kipper played poorly the last game, they are going to come ready to play tonight. Also LA is now missing Roenick, not like he was playing well, but I think he adds a lot of leadership in the dressing room. |
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