Continuation bet - how far?

Continuation bets.

When revueing my hands I find this is where a lot of my money goes.

Three situations, I find myself in A LOT.
How far do you take it. Assume you're at a LPP table.

1. Hero had AQs in CO. 2 limpers, Hero raises, 3 callers.
Flop. K,7,2r
3 checks, Hero bets, 3 callers.
Turn. T.
3 checks. Hero bets. 2 callers.
River. 4.
2 checks. Hero?

2. Hero has AK in UTG+1. Hero raises. CO calls. Blinds complete.
Flop. Q,7,2r.
BB bets. Hero raises. CO calls. SB folds. BB calls.
Turn.
BB checks. Hero?

3. Hero has TT in CO. MP1 limps.Folds.Hero raises. BB, MP1 call.
Flop. K,7,4r
2 checks. Hero bets. 2 calls.
Turn. J.
2 checks. Hero?

Continuation bets start to make me wretch when you're not catching cards. Especially when you're not catching cards and people keep looking you up because of it. Do you just keep donking away?

It's generally pretty easy when you hit your hand. These situations when you don't hit your hand happen often and seem to be where most of my money goes. Suggestions?

[GrunchCan]

linky

In short: bluffing in to a multiway pot is a bad idea. I think this is especially true in limit. Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is quite true. These boards are very unlikely to have hit anyone. Betting with AQ on a K72 board is very often a value bet with the best hand and also hand protection (we'd love to fold A2/Q2/33/etc).

[Bankuri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is quite true. These boards are very unlikely to have hit anyone. Betting with AQ on a K72 board is very often a value bet with the best hand and also hand protection (we'd love to fold A2/Q2/33/etc).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, time to show my ignorance. I don't see how we have the best hand if there is an A2/Q2/33 out there against us. Perhaps you meant or hand protection? It's still a bluff in the sense that you have a very weak draw without the best hand.

And, another thing I'm working on is distinguishing the statistics (how likely something is to happen) from the actual instance (when something happens). Now, as you say these flops are unlikely to have hit anyone, but occasionally they do! My experience playing with poor players in the micros is that one of these players betting into one of these flops means they hit part of it.

A small anecdote. Feynman was giving a talk at Cal Tech and he started his talk by saying as he was walking to the lecture hall from the parking lot he saw a car with the license plate (2FB 755). He then asked, what were the odds of that happening?

Well, of course, it's extremely unlikely that he would see that precise license plate that night, but it isn't at all unlikely that he would see at least one license plate. Asking what the odds were of seeing the license plate he saw is asking the wrong question. I often wonder if that's what people are doing in these forums when they talk about flops being unlikely to have hit anyone.

Am I just being ignorant here?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, time to show my ignorance. I don't see how we have the best hand if there is an A2/Q2/33 out there against us. Perhaps you meant or hand protection? It's still a bluff in the sense that you have a very weak draw without the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was referring to hand protection. Many opponents here would fold those hands to a flop continuation bet and that would be great for you as it increases the chance you'll win the pot.

[Absolution]

I think the situations he outlined are particularly bad because he has so few outs. With 2 overs and/or good draw possibilities I would continue betting into 2 opponents. The TT hand is the only one that looks promising. You could be ahead quite a bit there. Really though, you should just take advantage of your passive opponents here. They let you get away from hands easily and also give you lots of free cards. Just take them.

[ QUOTE ]
linky

In short: bluffing in to a multiway pot is a bad idea. I think this is especially true in limit. Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the link. 2 questions.
How often would you continuation bet with overcards on a raggedy board when you were the PFR?
How much do you think fold equity increases when you are the PFR? (I always find myself using this as justification for a CB every time)

[Absolution]

His link seems to answer that. You can't really think about it independently. If you raise, the pot is bigger so they will call more, especially at this level. They might not even notice. How multiway is it? How many times have you made continuation bluffs in the past that ended up getting called down (or you ended up folding to aggression)?

I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice. If they weren't calling stations before they saw you lose with AK in a showdown to bottom pair, they probably will be after.

[GrunchCan]

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I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice.

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That could be true. It might be becasue continuation bets -- +EV ones and -EV ones -- are one of the most common moves on the flop in low-limit HE. Your opponents have seen a million of them.

[Nfinity]

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[ QUOTE ]
I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That could be true. It might be becasue continuation bets -- +EV ones and -EV ones -- are one of the most common moves on the flop in low-limit HE. Your opponents have seen a million of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regarding the way we play Low-Limit Hold' Em this probably accounts for a big percentage of our profitability.

Think about it. When you Raise Pre-Flop and actually have a made hand after the Flop, can you think of anything that you wouldn't bet if checked to? Few times if any are correct. What about when you flop a big draw and it's checked to you?

Toss in a few continuation bets and our observant opponent is wasting his time. This bet becomes one of the most effective ways to disguise our current hand and hands to come.

Not only that, but when we are just as likely to be betting AA as an OESD, how do our passive opponents feel about raising TPGK? If they could somehow find a raise against another player, they still might not against you. Few people realize how much profit they earn by lulling their opponents into this passive standard.