No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?

[TwoNiner]

Just looking at Pinnacle's odds to reach the final table of the main event and pretty much everyone is under 100-1. Say there's 5000 people, are these just rediculously low odds? The only "relative" value I see is Chau Giang 90-1, Andy Bloch 120-1. but if they are all off by a mile then it's not much of a difference between that and Ivey's 38-1.

[mackthefork]

I'd say it should be between 250 and 300-1 for the very best players, ranging up as far as 5000-1 for the deadest money. I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably, and if Dan Harrington makes the final table again, I'll personally eat my copies of Harrington on Hold'em Volumes 1 and 2, live online. If it happens be prepared for Mason to announce the impending release of Harrington on Hold'em volume 642.

Regards Mack

[ismisus]

the deadest money have less than 1 million to one shot. Some people will call all their chips with 10 hi, hoping for runner runner

[mackthefork]

Thats true, but no one is going to lay that price, anyway what the diffence between 0.02% and 0.0001% between friends. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Mack

[oneeye13]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably

[/ QUOTE ]

doesn't this mean he has roughly the same chance as a random player? i'll take this bet.

[mackthefork]

If I was running a book, which I am not, I would be able to take your bet, however I can't afford to accept this liability and as such it would be unfair of me to take your bet. Just out of interest, what odds would you consider as correct for Mr Hellmuth?

Regards Mack

[niwotyalpi]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say it should be between 250 and 300-1 for the very best players, ranging up as far as 5000-1 for the deadest money. I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably, and if Dan Harrington makes the final table again, I'll personally eat my copies of Harrington on Hold'em Volumes 1 and 2, live online. If it happens be prepared for Mason to announce the impending release of Harrington on Hold'em volume 642.

Regards Mack

[/ QUOTE ]


LOL. The thought of you eating both Harrington's books live online is busting me up. Come on Dan I wanna see this.

[mackthefork]

Just to clarify after I finish eating I'm going straight onto Amazon to order them again, seriously good stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Mack

[Leonardo]

This is why you are not a bookie. You would lose all your money. Hellmuth at 600-1? You are saying he is simply even with the field? What is wrong with you? He is easily in the top 30 to win. I think the odds being laid are very good and none of you can count. The very best players have a much better chance than average, easily 5 or 6 times, I think the very very elite have as much as 20x the chance of an average player of making the final table. The edge in a multi-day no limit event is HUGE.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why you are not a bookie. You would lose all your money. Hellmuth at 600-1? You are saying he is simply even with the field? What is wrong with you? He is easily in the top 30 to win. I think the odds being laid are very good and none of you can count. The very best players have a much better chance than average, easily 5 or 6 times, I think the very very elite have as much as 20x the chance of an average player of making the final table. The edge in a multi-day no limit event is HUGE.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do okay, I won't take a bet at 600-1 on an event where I can get no turnover because I can't cover a payout easily should it come in, seems eminently sensible to me. As regards to the best being 20 times more likely to make the final table I disagree, but its purely an opinion, I suspect a top pro is worth 3 buyins at a maximum. Also I am expecting around 8000 players in the main event, this could also be way out, my estimate for Hellmuth is based on his perceived inability to cope with large fields (multi thousand) full of less than accomplished players. Also again I ask what odds would you give of Hellmuth reaching the final table.

Regards Mack