Wait for Turn in Huge Pot?

Argus · #1 10-26-2005, 03:27 PM

UTG is unknown - he limped in so I assume he's weak.

MP is a bad playing LAG with stats of 49/23/1.3 over 150 hands. I haven't noticed him do anything out of line, and what I have noticed about his play isn't too relevant to this hand (it's about blind steals).

SB is a multitabling TAG, possibly 2+2. 20.4/16/2.4 over 4k hands, and most of them are datamined because I avoid him unless he's on my left.

BB could be described as a typical 10/20 player: 38/26/2.8 over 4k hands, and not too out of line though very aggressive.

The question is, should I wait until the turn to raise in this enormous pot?

Empire Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero?

krimson · #2 10-26-2005, 03:34 PM

With your position relative to the aggressor I don't see any reason to wait for the turn here. A turn raise doesn't have any hand protection value. You might well as push this for value while everyone is involved. A side benefit is that the SB may c/r off you to reduce the field on the turn.

krishanleong · #3 10-26-2005, 03:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see any reason to wait for the turn here. A turn raise doesn't have any hand protection value.

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Waiting till the turn would be for value. Not for protection. This hand doesn't need/can't get any protection.

Krishan

krimson · #4 10-26-2005, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Waiting till the turn would be for value. Not for protection. This hand doesn't need/can't get any protection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that people would be more likely to fold the turn if there was action on the flop though?

krishanleong · #5 10-26-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Waiting till the turn would be for value. Not for protection. This hand doesn't need/can't get any protection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that people would be more likely to fold the turn if there was action on the flop though?

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone who has a good draw (5 outs+) will have odds to call. So not really.

Krishan

#6 10-26-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Waiting till the turn would be for value. Not for protection. This hand doesn't need/can't get any protection.

[/ QUOTE ]

KDawgCometh · #7 10-26-2005, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see any reason to wait for the turn here. A turn raise doesn't have any hand protection value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Waiting till the turn would be for value. Not for protection. This hand doesn't need/can't get any protection.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that there is no way to protect your hand here at all, so wouldn't a flop raise have a good amount of value in itself too. You are pushing your possible edge right now because it has a good amount of value

spydog · #8 10-26-2005, 03:58 PM

I'd raise the flop. TAG caps in a 5-way pot and then leads the flop against 4 opponents. He has JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK most of the time. If you raise the flop he might call down with JJ/QQ, plus you get the other monkeys donating. If you call the flop then he won't lead QQ on the turn. If he has KK/AA/AK then he will 3-bet the flop and you can just call down. However, if you wait until the turn to raise then he will punish you with KK/AA and you will be forced to call down because the pot will be so big.

So, raise the flop to save you BBs against this player.

krishanleong · #9 10-27-2005, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise the flop he might call down with JJ/QQ, plus you get the other monkeys donating. If you call the flop then he won't lead QQ on the turn.

So, raise the flop to save you BBs against this player.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is basically correct. I raise the flop in this hand simply because I don't think Villian will lead with a hand we beat on the turn. The point of waiting is to trap the field with the best hand, not a tied or losing hand. That's why it's done mostly with sets.

Krishan

7ontheline · #10 10-26-2005, 04:03 PM

Krishan is wise. Wait to raise a non-club turn for value. No one with a draw is folding in a million years anyway.