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#1
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Odds to Chase?
This was an interesting hand for me. I limped in CO-1 with 56s and it was raised behind me. The flop left me with a gutshot straight draw. I was about to fold when I realized I had the odds to call, and that continued to the river. Anybody play this any differently?
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls. Flop: (18 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(9 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls. I'm getting 18:1 on the call with 4 outs. Turn: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, BB calls, UTG folds. Again, I'm getting more than 10:1. River: (16.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, CO calls, BB calls. Final Pot: 19.50 BB |
#2
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Re: Odds to Chase?
On the flop, I would probably only call it 3 or 3.5 outs. How good do you feel about your hand if the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits the turn and BB goes crazy? I still think this call is okay though.
On the turn, I am probably done with this hand. The odds are close if you are considering hitting the straight, but with the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe not helping you and possibly losing to a full house even if you hit on the end, I would probably fold. You really need close to 11 to 1 odds of winning when you hit to make a gutshot profitable. |
#3
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Re: Odds to Chase?
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, I would probably only call it 3 or 3.5 outs. How good do you feel about your hand if the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits the turn and BB goes crazy? I still think this call is okay though. [/ QUOTE ] I won't discount the 3rd of a suit quite that much, but even if it is only 3 outs I'm getting more than 14:1. [ QUOTE ] On the turn, I am probably done with this hand. The odds are close if you are considering hitting the straight, but with the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe not helping you and possibly losing to a full house even if you hit on the end, I would probably fold. You really need close to 11 to 1 odds of winning when you hit to make a gutshot profitable. [/ QUOTE ] I'm getting 13.5:1 on the turn. I thought the full house was unlikely so I wasn't worried about it, but maybe I should have considered it. Any one else? -- Scott |
#4
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Re: Odds to Chase?
Your gutshot is only worth 3-3.5 outs, due to the flush draw.
The board pairing on the turn devalues your hand more than you realize, and I fold. |
#5
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Re: Odds to Chase?
[ QUOTE ]
The board pairing on the turn devalues your hand more than you realize, and I fold. [/ QUOTE ] How much does it devalue it, a half an out? -- Scott |
#6
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Re: Odds to Chase?
Gutshots are 10:1 based on card odds on the next cards, but I give it a 7:1 implied odds on a rainbow flop, 3.5 to 1 implied on 2 over cards and gutshot, but then discount it to 14:1 if the flop is two suited. You did you have 18 to 1 on the flop, making it correct to draw technically.. but, you got lucky in my opinion. There were 5 people to act behind you, any of them could have easily value bet raised on a flush draw or any other reason. That would have made your crappy draw even more crappier and trapping you into calling more than you'd like. I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had.. unless there were other out possibilities, such as an improvement to a backdoor flush draw.
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#7
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Re: Odds to Chase?
[ QUOTE ]
That would have made your crappy draw even more crappier and trapping you into calling more than you'd like. [/ QUOTE ] Why wouldn't I like to call if I'm getting the correct odds? -- Scott |
#8
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Re: Odds to Chase?
You fold because you did not improve and others may have.
Gutshots are marginal draws anyways, but are only acceptable with the right flop and further implied odds. Once you miss on the turn, you lose a round of implied odds .. not to mention it now costs a big bet to chase to a hand that may not win. In your example, the turn paired the board. Therefore, you may already be up against a boat. If not, you could easily be rivered by a flush or a boat. Even if you were only up against trip jacks on the turn, you had callers behind you and very likely could have been trapped with raises. Frankly, even if the turn looks like a harmless blank.. I would let go of the hand. |
#9
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Re: Odds to Chase?
[ QUOTE ]
I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had.. [/ QUOTE ] This is clearly wrong. |
#10
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Re: Odds to Chase?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had.. [/ QUOTE ] This is clearly wrong. [/ QUOTE ] You're entitled to your opinion, but I don't think I give up anything to avoid the risk of being trapped for big bets on a mediocre draw. In order for the pot to be quite big, there would probably have to be a preflop raise or a lot of action on the flop. I just don't see many circumstances where I would play a POS like 65s preflop when raised , or being trapped with a gutshot draw with lots of betting on the flop. The only gutshots plausible would be with high cards, and you just have to expect at least a raise on the turn - and then a very real possibility that your gutshot may counterfeit with someone to win a split pot. |
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