Pot odds + Ace + Sooted, what to do

[Phil Van Sexton]

I wanted to post a hand today. This is most interesting I can find without looking too hard.

This is 50/5. Several hands after the 86 hand.

The villian has been pretty passive. He had limped and min-raised a few times in levels 1-3. He pretty much folded through level 4.

A few hands earlier on level 5 (100/200), he limped from MP with only 405 left. He then bet his remaining 205 on the flop and everyone folded.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter

MP (t2480)
CO (t2310)
Button (t1375)
Hero (t1745)
BB (t1610)
UTG (t480)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t480 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[Tilt]

I vote fold, since you dont close the action and your hand is not all that great.

Smooth calling is a bad idea unless your BB opponent would read a smooth call as a monster and fold. Pretty rare that you can assume such higher thinking among internet opponents. If you do a shutout reraise, you will be risking alot to get into a situation where you are pretty unlikely to be a big favorite over anything UTG holds and are quite possibly dominated by him.

So Id fold and pull a PVS next hand.

[the shadow]

Fold. If villian has any pair, you're behind. If villian has Ax (x&gt;5), you're behind. You're ahead only if villian is pushing broadway or lower.

The Shadow (who suggests that instead of pushing, you call -- as in , calling All-in Anonymous for some help).

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If villian has any pair, you're behind. If villian has Ax (x&gt;5), you're behind. You're ahead only if villian is pushing broadway or lower.

The Shadow (who suggests that instead of pushing, you call -- as in , calling All-in Anonymous for some help).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty clear what he's ahead of and behind to. Put UTG on a range of hands instead. Even if UTG has been playing passive, there's a good chance he's pushing a wide range because of the incoming blinds. This includes all pairs and aces, but also a lot of weak broadway hands and perhaps suited connectors.

Your analysis also ignored the odds hero is getting in the hand, and the equity he has when he pushes and the BB folds. It seems Ilya has already done the calculations, so I won't be redundant. I'll just say that there's more to a poker hand than hands you're behind and hands you're ahead of.

-Phoenix

[the shadow]

Phoenix, I agree entirely that there's more to a poker hand than figuring out what's you're ahead of or behind.

You're also right that my post didn't mention the pot odds. It wouldn't be correct, however, to suggest that I didn't consider it.

I'm not in love with calling a push for nearly a quarter of my stack when I'm likely a 60/40 or 66/34 dog. You can pay me to do it, but I'd like a little more than t300 to do so. Heck I can get that, with less risk, by stealing the blinds once. Maybe if there were a limper or bigger blinds, so there were more dead money, or maybe if I were risking only 10% of my stack, I'd take the gamble, but not here.

I'm sure you'll agree, but there's also more to playing a poker hand -- especially a SNG -- than just pot odds.

The Shadow (who always appreciates someone pointing out something he got wrong or missed)

P.S. adanthar wrote a good post -- "I am only a coinflip, so I fold" -- on the same point you were making.

P.P.S. I wonder how many posters would be suggesting calling the push if the hand weren't sooted.

[curtains]

I believe I'd fold.

[rohjoh]

I push here, the big blind will fold all but the best hands, and UTG is pushing with any two because he is about to be blinded down to 180 chips if he does not. If UTG doubles up, he will be an easy target next hand for you to steal his blinds.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I push here, the big blind will fold all but the best hands, and UTG is pushing with any two because he is about to be blinded down to 180 chips if he does not. If UTG doubles up, he will be an easy target next hand for you to steal his blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I probably push here too, but I'm not sure that we can take for granted that UTG is pushing with any two OR that BB will only call us with monsters. However, if BB folds most of the time, I think that's good enough, as we're getting just about enough in pot odds to deal with cases where UTG is holding A7, 88, etc., and this doesn't even take into the account that any broadway is almost certainly in his range here (and probably some weaker holdings, but I'm still not sold on any 2), which we'd love to see.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
I push here, the big blind will fold all but the best hands, and UTG is pushing with any two because he is about to be blinded down to 180 chips if he does not. If UTG doubles up, he will be an easy target next hand for you to steal his blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes i agree that this is a push. Even if UTG has been passive so far he will probably realise that he is about to be blinded out and need to make a move with pretty bad hands here. I don't think he will be pushing any two though.

[Newt_Buggs]

I would have folded before reading this thread, now I'm thinking push. Anyone who isnt in lecture right now want to work out the math? It looks like you are getting 3:1 on your money if the BB folds