A baseball bet

jrobb83 · #1 04-06-2005, 02:05 AM

My friend, occasional 2+2'er maxpowers21 ( not MaxPower), bet me $100 even money that Randy Johnson would win 22 or more games. If he wins 22 or more, I pay him. If he wins 21 or less, he pays me. I accepted the bet and neither of us can back down now, but I thought I'd get OOT's thoughts on who has the edge.

I feel like I have a significant edge in this bet, as it is very difficult for even an exceptional pitcher having a great year to reach 22 wins. Thoughts?

ClaytonN · #2 04-06-2005, 02:06 AM

The Baseball Tonight guys are wagering he can get 25, *MAYBE* 30.

Methinks you are -EV.

Jack of Arcades · #3 04-06-2005, 02:36 AM

Dude, the Baseball Tonight guys know jack about projecting statistics.

Randy injury history = spotty
Yankee defense = teh suck
Randy = 41
Yankee offense = overrated.

tdarko · #4 04-06-2005, 02:48 AM

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Randy injury history = spotty

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less workload this year less chance of breakdown
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Yankee defense = teh suck

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yankees scored 5.5 runs a game last year and randy allowed less than 3, oh and when you punch out 290 your defense doesnt have to do as much.
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Randy = 41

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tell that to clemens too
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Yankee offense = overrated

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2nd in the MLB is hardly overrated

Jack of Arcades · #5 04-06-2005, 02:58 AM

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less workload this year less chance of breakdown

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Already addressed this.

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2nd in the MLB is hardly overrated

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Because they have the exact same team as last year, right? Except they replaced Cairo with Womack, and everyone's a year older.

tdarko · #6 04-06-2005, 03:01 AM

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Because they have the exact same team as last year, right? Except they replaced Cairo with Womack, and everyone's a year older

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not sure what you mean by this, womack is better than cairo and since its the same team you are telling me they are only better than what they were last year which was the 2nd best offense in all of baseball.

JaBlue · #7 04-06-2005, 02:07 AM

I am a big yankees fan but I am sure you are getting the better end of this one.

LethalRose · #8 04-06-2005, 02:15 AM

the yankees rotation faces injury and age issues, Johnson will win at least 25 unless he has a major injury.

sam h · #9 04-06-2005, 02:22 AM

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Johnson will win at least 25 unless he has a major injury.

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Sure, its not like nobody has won 25 games in fifteen years or anything.

daryn · #10 04-06-2005, 02:07 AM

you win

tell him he can buy out of the bet now for $50