Taking a Coinflip in BB on the Absolute Bubble? ($109)

[MSUcougar]

Party $109, 500 entrants... we're at 61 left, money at 60 (2x buyin).

I have 3600 before posting the 600 BB.

Folded to SB who pushes his 7000 stack.

I have 55.

Now, of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here... Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

Is this a call or fold? Why? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[mlagoo]

i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

[ QUOTE ]
i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah - there's a HUGE difference between 55 and 77 vs. any 2 . . .

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

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Yeah - there's a HUGE difference between 55 and 77 vs. any 2 . . .

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Yeah I know. A 12% equity swing. Pretty huge.

[Roman]

antes? I think this is a call with antes, closer but still probably a call without.

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
antes? I think this is a call with antes, closer but still probably a call without.

[/ QUOTE ]
no antes on party...

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
Party $109, 500 entrants... we're at 61 left, money at 60 (2x buyin).

I have 3600 before posting the 600 BB.

Folded to SB who pushes his 7000 stack.

I have 55.

Now, of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here... Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

Is this a call or fold? Why? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Call. Why?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.3249 % 59.64% 00.68% { 55 }
Hand 2: 39.6751 % 38.99% 00.68% { random }

Cashing would have to mean something for you to fold here. If winning means more, call.

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. Why?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.3249 % 59.64% 00.68% { 55 }
Hand 2: 39.6751 % 38.99% 00.68% { random }

Cashing would have to mean something for you to fold here. If winning means more, call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Winning definitely means more. However, given my stack size, I'm not sure calling and winning gives me ENOUGH of a stack (as compared to what I'd have if I folded) to justify risking it all on the bubble.

Thoughts on this?

2 points:

1. If you are playing to WIN, it looks like a good call. His all in is probably weakness as a $2500 bet accomplishes the same result with less risk to the SB HOLDING a decent hand.

2. If playing to cash, just log out and leave thus totally eliminating any risk of not cashing.

[Melchiades]

I'm not sure I follow this line of reasoning. Maybe this situation is too good to pass up on, that might be. But many here seems to have some sort of weird obsession about taking any +cEV play on the bubble. That can't be right? We play poker to win money, and if that means sometimes securing a place ITM when 60 out of 61 gets payed so be it. Playing to win and not to place means not going in check fold mode when we are closing the money and you think might be able to fold into the money. It doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong to pass up on +cEV right on the bubble.

Seems to be some sort of macho mantra on this forum "We play to win, not to get ITM!".

To me there is no if you play to win do this, and if you play to get ITM do that. We always make the play that will make us the most money. Sometimes that means passing on a +cEV play to get into the money.