AKs - 600 NL PP

[greenroom1]

I don't post very often but would appreciate feedback on this hand.

600 NL PP blinds $3/6
Table is loose passive. Button has been playing tight agressive and has been playing very well.

SB 465
BB 615
Hero 989
UTG+1 780
CO 246
Button 2606


I am UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I raise to $20
Folds to the button who reraises to $50
Hero calls

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero Checks
Villian bets: $70
Hero calls

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero Checks
Villian Bets 175
Hero Calls

river: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero Checks
Villian bet $500
Hero folds

Should I have bet or reraised the flop, or should I have folded the turn?

[AZK]

Because of your stack size I normally lead this flop.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
Because of your stack size I normally lead this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading the flop is not the answer. You'll only get blown off the nut flush draw when the aggressive button raises, and the board provides no reason for tight big stacked villian to believe his hand still isn't good.

Check-call the flop and check-fold the turn unimproved.

Garland

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because of your stack size I normally lead this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading the flop is not the answer. You'll only get blown off the nut flush draw when the aggressive button raises, and the board provides no reason for tight big stacked villian to believe his hand still isn't good.

Check-call the flop and check-fold the turn unimproved.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is very weak.

[Sadat X]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Quote:
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Because of your stack size I normally lead this flop.


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Leading the flop is not the answer. You'll only get blown off the nut flush draw when the aggressive button raises, and the board provides no reason for tight big stacked villian to believe his hand still isn't good.

Check-call the flop and check-fold the turn unimproved.

Garland


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I think this is very weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you want to take the aggressive route, the best play is to lead for about $50 and make a big reraise if he comes over the top. I don't think this is bad play if your opponent is capable of folding a big pair on the flop.

[Stormwolf]

He has 48% equity against a range of JJ+, 47% for QQ+, even for KK+ its 41%, throw in some AK AQs or TT it makes an easy lead get raised push

[greenroom1]

Was it a mistake to consider the two overcards as outs. I figured I had 15 outs which made calling correct as long as he didnt have a set or AA/KK.

I should have bet 3/4s to a pot size bet on the flop, but I get timid in the face of a reraise from a tight player preflop. I figured holding the AK made him less likely to have AA/KK. The pots odds were right to call the flop. The turn is questionable, because I think if a spade hit on river he would have folded to any bet.

[thabadguy]

Since you said that button is TAG, I think it is safe to assume that his reraising on the button means more than just AA or KK. I think a checkraise on the flop tells you more about opponents hand than a lead. I normally dont like CR'ing with a draw but in this case, if you lead and he raises, then you dont know if he has something like JJ or a set. I think if you CR it gives you a whole lotta options. If he raises your checkraise, you can fold. If he calls, you can lead turn for pot and most likely take it down. Playing nut draws aggressively is the right play IMO.

[Sadat X]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a checkraise on the flop tells you more about opponents hand than a lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that this hand would hate a 3-bet. A pot-sized reraise really puts you in a tight spot.

I'm usually a very aggressive player but calling the flop and folding the turn here is probably the best course of action.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
If he raises your checkraise, you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the time he reraises the check-raise, you're just about given odds to call if you at worst believe he has AA. It's even better if you're drawing to a live A.

Suppose the line on the flop went something like: check, bet $70, check-raise to $210, re-raise to $939 and all-in. You are getting 1258:729 to call or exactly 1.73:1 odds to call.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1096387
pokenum -h as ks - kd kh -- 9s 6d 2s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 2s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 456 46.06 534 53.94 0 0.00 0.461
Kd Kh 534 53.94 456 46.06 0 0.00 0.539

This says you are a slight dog at 1.16:1 against. You have to call.

Even against AA, you have to call the re-raise all-in:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1096390
pokenum -h as ks - ad ah -- 9s 6d 2s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 2s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 360 36.36 630 63.64 0 0.00 0.364
Ad Ah 630 63.64 360 36.36 0 0.00 0.636

This says you need 1.74:1 to call. You just about have odds to call here too.

In my opinion, your line is weak. Chip-spewing and then folding when you have odds to call. You might as well check-raise all-in if you feel there's an inkling of a chance that he might fold.

Garland