When Genuises Are Certain

David Sklansky · #1 09-24-2005, 04:47 AM

I want to precisely define my position on this matter.

First of all my definition of genuis is about the normal one except I don't rate spatial relations, musical ability, or the like as a big part of the assessment. I'm talking about analytical ability. The ability to EASILY get a Phd in subjects like physics, logic, economics, or maybe even law. Not just pure math ability.

My next contention is that such a genuis is a monster favorite to be right when he disagrees with a merely intelligent person in the genuis's chosen field. I doubt that is debatable.

My more debatable contention is that the genuis is a rather big favorite over a moderately intelligent person even when he disagrees about fields outside his expertise, and even if the questions have not yet been decided. AS LONG AS:

1. The genuis has studied the field almost as hard as the other guy (which automatically counts me out even if I otherwise qualified.)

2. The genuis is almost certain about his conclusions (which almost certainly means he DID study the subject)

3. The genuis is not one of those idiot savant, can't tie, his shoe types.

4. The subject has a degree of logical thinking involved with it and doesn't require a lot of artistic type talent.

If those four criteria are met, then if you were able to bet on who was right between a random genuis, and a random, kind of smart, person, I say you could certainly lay a big price on the genuis. Exactly how big depends on the subject. But religion definitely is one of them.

David Sklansky · #2 09-24-2005, 05:02 AM

Here are three counterarguments. But for various reasons, not strong ones.

1. There might be a psychological bias. Thus if there were somehow good reasons to castrate all genuises and genuises disagreed with the reasoning, we might be less apt to trust them. (Religious people like to cling to this rationalization.)

2. Just because they are a favorite to be right doesn't mean they have to be right. (The problem with that point is that if many genuises all believe the same thing the price gets pretty high.)

3. As long as some genuises believe differently from the rest, lesser minds are free to take both sides. (Actually I would say they should just watch the debate. And if the overwhelming majority of the genuises believe one thing, I'll still lay a big price on them.)

David Sklansky · #3 09-24-2005, 05:17 AM

By the way this thread was spawned by references to Bertrand Russell. I feel persoanally insulted when people like Not Ready have the audacity to believe they have the right to think their differing opinions with him should be taken equally seriously about ANY subject that Russell studied and was certain about.

sexdrugsmoney · #4 09-24-2005, 05:43 AM

I like how the first two replies are from the OP and are exactly 15 minutes apart.

Darryl_P · #5 09-24-2005, 06:43 AM

Bobby Fischer's IQ has been shown to be 190 or thereabouts and he believes the Jews are solely to blame for everything that's evil in the world.

What if I were to get offended by someone daring to claim expertise on the same issue (that he has also studied extensively), who had a much lower IQ (say 130-140 or so)?

Would that be OK?

snappo · #6 09-24-2005, 07:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bobby Fischer's IQ has been shown to be 190 or thereabouts and he believes the Jews are solely to blame for everything that's evil in the world.

[/ QUOTE ]

probably "reasonably sane" or something along those lines could be added on sklanksly's list. nonetheless if that is your best counterargument i think you are confirming sklansky's point.

#7 09-24-2005, 07:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bobby Fischer's IQ has been shown to be 190 or thereabouts and he believes the Jews are solely to blame for everything that's evil in the world.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not believe you. You must provide me with proof of such a belief. When did Bobby Fischer say this and please give me a reference as this is of great interest to me.

snappo · #8 09-24-2005, 07:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bobby Fischer's IQ has been shown to be 190 or thereabouts and he believes the Jews are solely to blame for everything that's evil in the world.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not believe you. You must provide me with proof of such a belief. When did Bobby Fischer say this and please give me a reference as this is of great interest to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is not certain that his IQ was 180.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Fischer :

"According to school records, he has an I.Q. of 180 and an "incredibly retentive memory.""

Darryl_P · #9 09-24-2005, 08:26 AM

From a 1999 radio interview:

------------------------------------

Bobby Fischer: I intend to do what I'm doing right now.
Pablo Mercado: What?
Bobby Fischer: Which is to expose the Jews for the criminals they are, the parasites they are, the liars they are, the thieves they are, the niggers (?) they are.
Pablo Mercado: You speak like an Arab.
Bobby Fischer: .. You ask the Palestinians. I was just listening to the BBC. the horror story that come out of there when you get into an Israeli prison. the way they torture you . it's unheard of. I was listening to a Palestinian woman, a Christian woman from Palestine, not even Muslims, Christian women who were anti-Israel. They got picked up by the Israeli police, taken down to the jail, and then the Israeli police tried to get information -- Who do you know among your friends that's anti-Israel? Give us all the names of your Arab, Christian friends who are anti-Israel. When they refused, they put the women in a cell, these are mothers, these women, mostly. They put em in a cell, and then they start playing, in Arabic, on the loudspeaker, 24 hours a day, "Mommy, come home, Mommy, we miss you" in Arabic. They played it over and over again until the women just collapsed.
Pablo Mercado: All right, do you have any.
Bobby Fischer: This is the Jewish mentality. These are a criminal people. They torture their prisoners in the worst way. It's even illegal! They don't even deny it hardly. Jews were always bastards throughout history. They are liars, they are the worst pieces of [censored] in the world. They mutilate their own children.
Pablo Mercado: all right.
Bobby Fischer: [censored] the Jews.

------------------------------------------

http://www.ishipress.com/fischer1.htm

Maybe he didn't say it EXACTLY as I said, but the general idea is evident.

#10 09-24-2005, 08:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bobby Fischer's IQ has been shown to be 190 or thereabouts and he believes the Jews are solely to blame for everything that's evil in the world.

What if I were to get offended by someone daring to claim expertise on the same issue (that he has also studied extensively), who had a much lower IQ (say 130-140 or so)?

Would that be OK?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is interesting that no one else was able to come up with an example of a genius going against the tide. I guess Sklansky has got something here but this particular case seems to have scared him away from the thread. I wonder why.