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#1
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I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:
SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls. Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks. River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero???? |
#2
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK.
Surf |
#3
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i see AK from the button a lot here. |
#4
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
I must be going insane. I was thinking this is a definite cap. I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time. Buttons hand looks like K7 or AK and his AF and PFR is very in line with these 2 hands. Maybe even KJ or smaller. I think we definitely have button beat over 85% of the time. I think sb is the real threat. He whiffs a checkraise on the turn and tries again on the river... But he bet the flop. Hes doing something extremely fancy or he has air/misclick/KQ. Even K7 works for him. A 75/5 player with his AF could easily be reconsidering betting his 7 again in fear of a raise from a 5 or someone hit the Q. Then when its checked through, he could have hit the K and figured his hand is easily good? I'm having a very hard time putting sb on ANY hand. But if hes a 75/5 (probably meaning he doesn't think like the rest of us) I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.
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#5
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time....I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure that 33% is the number we need in order to cap for value. 33% assumes that the button will always call your cap and also assumes that you are never chopping the pot. |
#6
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
i think the turn is too cute. i guess you feel like no one has anything and by betting you will get 2 folds. you certainly cant count on the button to bet. hes not that aggressive and he is super loose which means its likely he calls the flop with nothing.
the river i think is a fold. button's play is exactly in line with a flopped boat. if the pot were bigger id call since you have a strong board kicker. as it stands here, the pot isnt so big, you are hoping to chop, and you have 2 semi-sane players going to war. so youre getting 10-2 or 12-3. you need to have each of them beat 40-50% of the time. i think the button is 50/50 having a flopped boat or AK. do you beat the SB 1/3 of the time? well i think you chop with him pretty often. maybe half the time you lose, half the time you chop. then you win .5*(.5*.5) = 1/8, so youd need 9-1 if thats right |
#7
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
i call 2 more cold and curse my rotten luck/play
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#8
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do: SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls. Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks. River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero???? [/ QUOTE ] these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal. that is to say. bet the freakin turn. Barron |
#9
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
Thanks Barron,
I'm not saying whether I called or folded yet, but I'm glad someone took the flip side or there wouldn't be much discussion here. This decision was TOUGH. |
#10
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Re: I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do: SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls. Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks. River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero???? [/ QUOTE ] these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal. that is to say. bet the freakin turn. Barron [/ QUOTE ] the turn check makes it harder to fold. the button checked last to act, now he raises? the sb apparently whiffs on a checkraise and now check-3bets. plus hes not getting great odds, and there is a parlay effect which is huge |
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