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#1
12-07-2005, 03:28 PM
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KK blind defense...new line
I've been playing kinda LAG...the easy way to tell this is that I am down money [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]......
Villians pf aggression was quite low. So I was about to reraise to $20. I thought for a sec and couldn't think of many hands he would call $20 with that he definately wouldn't call allin with, so....... Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx UTG ($201.65) UTG+1 ($246.90) MP1 ($210.20) MP2 ($193.30) MP3 ($184.83) CO ($248.57) Button ($333.60) SB ($264.35) Hero ($157.45) Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $155.45 (All-In) 
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#3
12-07-2005, 03:32 PM
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Re: KK blind defense...new line
Reraising to $20 is a really bad play. Raise to $30 to kill set odds. There's nothing I love more than raising ducks on the button and getting priced in for an inevitable stacking every 8 flops.
-SmileyEH
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#4
12-07-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: KK blind defense...new line
[ QUOTE ]
Reraising to $20 is a really bad play. Raise to $30 to kill set odds. There's nothing I love more than raising ducks on the button and getting priced in for an inevitable stacking every 8 flops. [/ QUOTE ] Raising to $30: 1.8:1 odds. Raising to $20: 2.5:1 odds. Hitting a set: 7.5:1 odds. How are we pricing him out? Does your example deal with effective odds?
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#5
12-07-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: KK blind defense...new line
Got to raise this more preflop, make it at least 30 with 3 limpers.
A 3bet is going to pot commit you, You have to bet at least 150. That would put over 50% of your stack in the middle. OOP this is going to get ugly. All 3betting does is gets you committed versus a set and folds out hands you beat unless you put him on a draw. I don't see a flush draw doing this too often however. Given the fact he min-raised with a player waiting to act after him i'm probably folding. If you had raised more preflop however and gotten HU, i'm calling and check raising all in on the turn.
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#6
12-07-2005, 04:23 PM
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Re: KK blind defense...new line
[ QUOTE ]
Got to raise this more preflop, make it at least 30 with 3 limpers. A 3bet is going to pot commit you, You have to bet at least 150. That would put over 50% of your stack in the middle. OOP this is going to get ugly. All 3betting does is gets you committed versus a set and folds out hands you beat unless you put him on a draw. I don't see a flush draw doing this too often however. Given the fact he min-raised with a player waiting to act after him i'm probably folding. If you had raised more preflop however and gotten HU, i'm calling and check raising all in on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] lol
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#8
12-07-2005, 05:26 PM
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Re: KK blind defense...new line
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Got to raise this more preflop, make it at least 30 with 3 limpers. A 3bet is going to pot commit you, You have to bet at least 150. That would put over 50% of your stack in the middle. OOP this is going to get ugly. All 3betting does is gets you committed versus a set and folds out hands you beat unless you put him on a draw. I don't see a flush draw doing this too often however. Given the fact he min-raised with a player waiting to act after him i'm probably folding. If you had raised more preflop however and gotten HU, i'm calling and check raising all in on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] lol [/ QUOTE ] Whoops, posted this in the wrong thread.
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#9
12-07-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: KK blind defense...new line
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Reraising to $20 is a really bad play. Raise to $30 to kill set odds. There's nothing I love more than raising ducks on the button and getting priced in for an inevitable stacking every 8 flops. [/ QUOTE ] Raising to $30: 1.8:1 odds. Raising to $20: 2.5:1 odds. Hitting a set: 7.5:1 odds. How are we pricing him out? Does your example deal with effective odds? [/ QUOTE ] I think it has to do with cutting down his implied odds. If hero makes it $30, villain has to put in $22 to call. Then if villain flops a set, the best he can do win the $9 in the pot + hero's $157 stack = $166. Putting in $22 to win $166 on a 7.5:1 shot is just about 0 EV. If hero doesn't get stacked every time or if villain puts more money in postflop with an unimproved pair, that's a clear -EV call. If hero only raises to $20, villain gets 166:12 implied odds, which puts hero in a tough spot postflop if villain starts showing agression on a ragged board. Does he have QQ or JJ or did he hit a set? If you fold the best hand, you lose a ton of value, but if you'll call off your whole stack with an overpair, you've given him good odds to hit a set with that preflop raise. If you make it $30 preflop, he can't call profitably even if he knows you'll just auto-push any flop.
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#10
12-07-2005, 05:29 PM
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Re: KK blind defense...new line
That's kind of what I was figuring. So he'll stand to lose $22 7/8 times if he autofolds flop without set to Hero's jam, but he'll win Hero's stack 1/8 times when he gets the set? What about redraws, an Ace high flop, etc? Do we just not figure these because there are too many variables that nothing is certain?
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