Every fibre in my body told me I was beat...

[Lawrence Ng]

Live 20-40 game,

Some dude limps in EP, folded to me on the button with KK and I take it upstairs on the button.

SB folds to the BB who nervously throws in 3-bets. The old man in BB defines weak tight to the extreme, but now I'm thinking with his re-raise and my KK that I may be forced to the weak tight one!!! Played about 4 hours into the session, he has yet to re-raise once, though he has called several raises with the standard calling a raise stuff.

Limper calls, I cap it. Both call before the dealer even gets to them.

As the dealer rakes in the chips towards the center, I am eyeing the old man like a hawk. I am watching his eyes, his hands, his breathing, little twitches on his face. He's nervous, and obviously so. He's got about 6 or 7 red chips in his hand ready to go and never once looks up. His eyes are glued to the felt where the poker gods will determine his outcome for this hand..

The flop comes 2-2-7. His pupils grow, he instantly fires out 4 red chips. His eyes never leave the flop, never look up, but damn is he still ever nervous. His hands are trembling..

EP dude calls pretty quickly, and I think for 2 seconds still eyeing the old guy and muck.

Lawrence

[ALL1N]

Don't want to peel once? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]

Don't want to peel once?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he want to "peel". Its not like he's on a draw here, and even if he spikes a King the old man will only call a turn raise, and might muck to a river bet...

This flop is about making a decision, a very difficult decision. Either you're in front, and you play accordingly or your convinced hes got AA and you fold. Expert limit is about being able to accurately make these decisions.

Personally, I'd probably call the flop, raise the turn, and check the river unless I improve, but thats because I'm not skilled enough to make decisions...I just get to showdown.

lf

[Lestat]

<font color="red"> Expert limit is about being able to accurately make these decisions. </font>

Expert limit hold'em has almost nothing to do with making *these* decisions! This fold is atrocious. Even if he was positive the old man had AA, there are 14 small bets in the pot with a player in between. He should probably call the flop just to try and snag a king! This is a gross over-estimation of weighing any info based on 140 played hands. And I'll stand behind this fully expecting the results to say he was right and the old man showed AA.

[lil feller]

Ouch. I just got flames by Lestat...that hurts.

Seriously though.

So he's getting 14:1 to call. Ok. So he calls, and lets say he catches a king. He probably gets 6 more small bets into this pot right? Unless my math is wrong, that isn't enough.

More to the point, however, we all stuggle to make 1-2 bb/hour in a live game. Saying that making a decision that saves you 2.5 BB isn't importaqnt confuses me.

lf

[JTG51]

"More to the point, however, we all stuggle to make 1-2 bb/hour in a live game. Saying that making a decision that saves you 2.5 BB isn't importaqnt confuses me."

Saying that this decision saves 2.5 BB confuses me. Even if you're 100% sure the other guy has AA, calling down is much less than a 2.5 BB mistake in the long run.

[mperich]

[ QUOTE ]
More to the point, however, we all stuggle to make 1-2 bb/hour in a live game. Saying that making a decision that saves you 2.5 BB isn't importaqnt confuses me.


[/ QUOTE ]

This decision is never worth 2.5BB, since there is already so much money in the pot it is probably worth about .1BB if you are 100% sure he has aces, which i dont think is accurate. I think this is either breakevenish with a good read, or -ev. How is the 20 game at the Rock anyways lawrence?

-Mike

[Lestat]

Sorry, I really don't mean to flame anyone. Not you or Lawrence. I was just trying to point out what some others have already said:

That if Lawrence is right and the guy had AA and he were to pay him off every time for the rest of his poker life, he won't be missing any meals because of it. On the other hand, if he makes such folds and is wrong only rarely, this will add up over his poker career to prove quite costly.

[Lestat]

<font color="red">So he's getting 14:1 to call. Ok. So he calls, and lets say he catches a king. He probably gets 6 more small bets into this pot right? Unless my math is wrong, that isn't enough. </font>

Your math is correct, it's just not complete.

Say he calls the flop getting 14 to 1. Now the turn is a K and the bb bets again. If EP dude calls again there are now 18 bets in the pot. If the old guy only calls a turn raise and pays off a river bet, that's 22 to 1 implied odds. It's true EP dude will not always call the turn bet, but some of the time Lawrence will get lucky and EP dude will have a 2, 77, or at least a king in his hand, and will pay off big time til the end further increasing Lawrence's implied odds.

That's why I said if the old guy tabled his AA face up when the action got to Lawrence on the flop, he should probably still call.

[Turning Stone Pro]

[ QUOTE ]

More to the point, however, we all stuggle to make 1-2 bb/hour in a live game.
lf

[/ QUOTE ]

Speak for yourself. Furthermore, the fold is horrendous. I don't understand why the geezer can't have QQ -- could that be the reason for his nervousness?

TSP