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#1
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5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
5/10 NL
SB hasn't done anything remarkable, other than check call my flopped 2 pair of KQ on a 2 flush board and then fold to a 2/3 pot bet after a turn brick about 6 hands before. He seems a little on the aggressive side. Folded to SB (700)who makes it 50 I call (terrible?) in BB (520)with 22 Flop ($100ish): 345 rainbow He goes all in, I call. Gross? I figured decent outright bluff chance, and decent equity (40% or so?) even against a high pp. Folding felt really weak heads up, as I got about the best flop I could hope for that wasn't a set. |
#2
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Re: 5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
If you hadn't seen Villain raise out of the SB before then I think preflop call is pretty terrible. You will see a big hand and/or a continuation bet on the flop so often that you are only playing for set value. Given it is $40 to go and you are only 520 behind it is a fold.
On the flop I would say you could push if you are bet into but with Villain beating you too it I think it is a fold. You need to win 45% of the time to make a call profitable. If you are pretty sure that Villain will do this with AK and his SB raise is not some small or medium suited junk you can call I guess as it it will be almost break-even EV. equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 44.5635 % 42.25% 02.32% { 2c2d } Hand 2: 55.4365 % 53.12% 02.32% { JJ+, 66-22, AKs, AKo } |
#3
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Re: 5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
[ QUOTE ]
If you hadn't seen Villain raise out of the SB before then I think preflop call is pretty terrible. You will see a big hand and/or a continuation bet on the flop so often that you are only playing for set value. Given it is $40 to go and you are only 520 behind it is a fold. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Position + set value are more than enough for me to call here. |
#4
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Re: 5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
You are only going to win 81% of the time versus an overpair when you hit a set on the flop. So assuming that every time we are against a big pair and we hit a set we stack off, +$322.40. If we hit our set 12% that becomes $38.70 and we are paying $40 to see this flop.
I know sometimes Villain has AK, hits and you stack off, but I think there are way more times that you hit your set and only get a flop continuation bet from a middle PP or missed AK. Villain could also have total garbage but that is not an assumption I like to make when I will see 5 overcards by the river most of the time. So unless you plan on extracting some value from the times that you don't hit a set, which is very tricky with 22 this is an easy fold in my opinion. |
#5
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Re: 5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
[ QUOTE ]
You are only going to win 81% of the time versus an overpair when you hit a set on the flop. So assuming that every time we are against a big pair and we hit a set we stack off, +$322.40. If we hit our set 12% that becomes $38.70 and we are paying $40 to see this flop. I know sometimes Villain has AK, hits and you stack off, but I think there are way more times that you hit your set and only get a flop continuation bet from a middle PP or missed AK. Villain could also have total garbage but that is not an assumption I like to make when I will see 5 overcards by the river most of the time. So unless you plan on extracting some value from the times that you don't hit a set, which is very tricky with 22 this is an easy fold in my opinion. [/ QUOTE ] OK - you make some interesting points. First, where does the $322.40 come from? 81% of hero's remaining stack is more than 322.40 isn't it? Either way, 38.70 is close enoughto 40 for me to call here. Secondly, no offense but if you never extract value from a PP when you don't hit a set (particularly in position), then against any decent player who's played enough hands with you, you had better not count on stacking him when you do hit your set. |
#6
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Re: 5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
Actually it should have been $332.40 which is from:
(.81*$1040)-$510. And then $332.40*.12= $39.89. But in my mind, $40 is not the threshold between call and fold anyways. I am not counting on stacking every time when I hit a set which points me towards fold. If I don't hit a set I may choose to play my hand and my position but I hardly think that this is +EV without considering the pot, which I didn't have to build in the first place. We can agree to disagree though. |
#7
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Re: 5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
[ QUOTE ]
Gross? [/ QUOTE ] Gross. First, you call about 1/10 of effective stack size with 22. This is marginal, assuming you're playing for set equity. Now you call an all in overbet of $470 on a $100 pot. You're getting about 1.2:1 on this call. Let's run some numbers. Hands that are ahead: Overpair that's not AA, 66 or 77 : 62:38 36 combos AA, 66, 77 : 77:23 18 combos Set : 75:25 9 combos 46s, 56s : 75:25 6 combos Let's assume he never pushes with the made straight. This averages to about 70:30 or 2.33:1 Hands that are behind: Any two overcards that don't affect the straight: 77:23 Two overcards with an A : 80:20 Two overcards with a 6 : 66:34 Obviously, there are a buttload of combinations here. Let's say this averages to about 75:25. or 3:1. SO...... When we are behind, we're about a 2.33:1 dog. When we're ahead, we're about a 3:1 favorite. If we fold, our EV is 0. If we call, and are ahead: $570 * 75 - $470 * 25 = 31000/100 = $310/hand If we call and are behind: $570 * 30 - $470 * 70 = -15800/100 = -$158/hand Let X = probability that opponent has a worse hand than ours. X*$310 = (1-X)*$158 310X = 158 - 158X 468X = 158 X = 158/468 = 33.7% / 1.2 (for pot odds) = ~28% So.... your villian must be bluffing in this spot 28% of the time for this call to be correct. I don't see most people bluffing nearly this often. Besides, I think that this part of your read [ QUOTE ] SB hasn't done anything remarkable [/ QUOTE ] Should send you screaming for the hills. |
#8
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Re: 5/10 Blinds Battle - Good/Bad Call?
Jim, thanks for the breakdown.
The 28% mark is helpful, as that is what I tried to do (although not nearly as well as you have) in the time I had to make the decision. Is he really bluffing <28% of the time he makes this play? I actually thought at the time that it was more like 40/60. I guess I'm just used to overaggressive players, and got stubborn. I'll usually call for set value (which is all I meant to do here) as long as I can get at least 10/1 on the stack, which I was right at. |
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